Trading Diary
May 13, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow is experiencing huge volatility around the 10000 level - up 1.7% today, to 10109 on normal volume.

The Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.2% to 1652, still in a secondary cycle down-trend.
 
The S&P 500 returned to the 1070 level, up 1.8% at 1074.
 
Sears makes cash acquisition
Sears Roebuck acquires specialty catalog retailer, Lands End for $US 1.9 billion cash, sending a positive signal to the market. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ords dropped sharply to 3252 on lower volume, approaching the target of 3230 to 3240.


Inside information generally available to the public
 The market appears to receive news of profit downgrades or upgrades well before the official announcement. (more)

Publishing and Broadcasting Limited [PBL]
Standard and Poors downgraded its rating outlook on PBL - performance depends on "a recovery in advertising demand". (more)
MACD and Chaikin Money Flow both show bearish divergences.


 
Macquarie Bank [MBL]
The market reflects concerns over MBL annual results, to be released on Thursday. The bank is shifting its long-term emphasis to building reliable annuity income streams. (more) 
MACD and Chaikin Money Flow show strong distribution over the last year.


 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to form a base.
Long-term: Wait for the Nasdaq or S&P 500 to form a base.

Colin Twiggs



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.