Trading Diary
April 25, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow fell to as low as 9926 in the morning, below the 10000 level, but rallied later in the day to close almost unchanged at 10035 on reasonable volume. The short-trend is down but the secondary cycle up-trend is intact.
The Nasdaq Composite index closed unchanged at 1713. A break below the 1700 support level will signal a down-trend on the secondary cycle.
The S&P 500 weakened slightly to 1091, within the 1070 to 1180 trading range.
 
Disney
The theme parks have recovered to beat expectations but ABC Television Network has suffered from a fall in advertising sales. (more)
 
Saudi - US rift? 
The Saudis may threaten the US with the "oil weapon" if they continue to support Israel's military policies. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The ASX was closed for ANZAC Day. 
 
Dollar strengthens
The Australian dollar strengthened to its highest level in 14 months against the US dollar. (more)
 
Sectors: Gold
The sector charts show a healthy up-trend with improving relative strength


 
but Chaikin Money Flow and MACD show bearish divergences on the daily charts. Tighten up stops in this area.


 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long. Keep stop losses on existing trades as tight as possible.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to bottom out - the double top has a target of 3230 to 3240.
Long-term: Wait for the Nasdaq or S&P 500 to break above their January highs.

Colin Twiggs



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.