Trading Diary
April 08, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow continues it short-term down trend, closing at 10249 on good volume.
The Nasdaq Composite index completed a closing price reversal day , closing up at 1785 - a possible trough on the intermediate cycle.
The S&P 500 is still ranging between 1070 and 1180, closing up slightly at 1125.

Blue Monday
IBM falls 10% on warning of lower first-quarter sales and earnings. (more)
 
Compaq more upbeat
HP's merger partner issues an upbeat forecast, fuelling a late recovery. (more)

Australia - ASX
The All Ords closed unchanged at 3340 on low volume. The low close in relation to the daily range signals a possible reversal, while Chaikin Money Flow (below zero for most of March) confirms that distribution is taking place.
The MACD is still below its signal line.



Coles Myer [CML]
Coles has fallen 8% since it announced the phasing out of its discount card.(more)

Newcrest [NCM]
Currency and gold hedging losses cause a 90% drop in third-quarter earnings. (more)
 




Conclusion

Short-term: Avoid long.
Medium-term: Wait for a new high on the All Ords.
Long-term: Wait for the Nasdaq or S&P 500 to break above their January highs.


Colin Twiggs


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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.