Trading Diary
April 01, 2002
These extracts from my daily
trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in
short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms of Use .
USA
The Dow closed down 0.4% on Monday at 10359 on low volume. If
the index falls below 10200 this will mean a downward turn
in the short cycle.
Hopes of a chip sector recovery kept the Nasdaq in positive territory, closing up 0.9% at 1862. So far the index has failed to exceed its January high which would signal the start of a bull market.
Hopes of a chip sector recovery kept the Nasdaq in positive territory, closing up 0.9% at 1862. So far the index has failed to exceed its January high which would signal the start of a bull market.
Likewise, the S&P 500 encountered resistance around
the level of its January peak, and closed almost unchanged at
1146.
Crude oil futures above $27
Middle East tensions force crude futures above $27 a barrel
(after trading below $20 in February). (more)
Australia - ASX
The All Ords closed up slightly Thursday, at 3363 on very
high volume, signaling accumulation. The MACD and
Slow Stochastic are below their signal lines.
Rate rise?
Falling unemployment and strong growth have increased fears of
a rise in official interest rates, even as early as
Tuesday's Reserve Bank meeting.(more)
Sectors: Miscellaneous Industries
Miscellaneous Industries is a mixed assortment, including
Computer & Office Services and High Technology sectors. The
XMI index has formed a Stage 1 base and then broken above the
30-week weighted moving average, warranting further
investigation.
Conclusion
Short-term: Avoid long until there
is an intermediate up-trend.
Medium-term: Wait for a new high on the All Ords.
Long-term: Wait for the Nasdaq or S&P 500 to break
above their January highs.
Colin Twiggs
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.