Trading Diary
March 18, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
For the last 2 weeks the Dow has been trading in a narrow range between 10700 and the 10300 support level. Today it closed at 10577 on low volume.
The Nasdaq Composite index closed up 0.5% at 1877.
The S&P 500 could not overcome resistance at 1170 - 1180, closing almost unchanged at 1165.

A contrary view
Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs predicts an end of March sell-off. (more)

Australia - ASX
The All Ords recovered to close at 3400 but on low volume. The MACD and Slow Stochastic are below their signal lines.



Macquarie Infrastructure Group [MIG]
MIG requests a halt to trading until it is in a position to reveal the identity of a "possible significant transcation and associated funding arrangements".(more)

Sectors: Infrastructure & Utilities
XIU has been in a Stage 3 ranging pattern since May 2001.





Conclusion

Short-term: Avoid new positions until the Slow Stochastic and MACD turn above their signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for a new high on the All Ords.
Long-term: Look for a secondary cycle reversal on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 - if they break above their January highs.


Colin Twiggs


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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.