Trading Diary
March 14, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found atTerms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed a very small inside day, closing up slightly at 10517 on low volume. The bears are likely to test the 10300 support level in the days ahead.
The Nasdaq Composite index closed down 0.4% at 1854.
The S&P 500 also recorded an inside day, closing almost unchanged at 1153.

Beware of Japanese stocks
Uninformed analysts have been recommending Japan as a recovery play. (more)
 
Boeing
Accounting changes will add another $1.2 billion of debt to the balance sheet. (more)

Australia
The All Ords closed slightly up at 3398 on low volume. The Slow Stochastic is below its signal line.



Coles Myer [CML]
First-half profits rose 8.2% but the good news is that costs are forecast to fall by $300 million within 2 years.(more)

Sectors: Alcohol and Tobacco [XAT]
XAT has entered a Stage 3 trading range: the 30-week weighted moving average is sloping down and relative strength (price ratio) has been falling since October 2001.




Conclusion

Short-term: Avoid new positions until the Slow Stochastic turns above its signal line.
Medium-term: Wait for a new high on the All Ords.
Long-term: Look for a secondary cycle reversal on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 - if they break above their January highs.


Colin Twiggs


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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.