Trading Diary
March 13, 2002

These extracts from my daily stock trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term share trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found atTerms of Use .




USA
Another inside day, indicating continued uncertainty, with the Dow closing down more than 1% at 10501 on normal volume, but continuing to hold above the 10300 support level.
The Nasdaq Composite index retreated 1.85% to 1862 with chip stocks being sold down.
The S&P 500 retreated 1% to 1154, below the important 1170/1180 resistance level.

Triple witching hour this Friday
Contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options simultaneously expire on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. The last hour of trading is highly volatile as traders attempt to close out their positions.
 
Chip stocks down
Analysts cut growth forecasts and valuations for Intel and AMD. (more)
Australia - ASX
The All Ords retreated further to close at 3396 on low volume. The Slow Stochastic is below its signal line.
 
Sectors: Health & Biotechnology
The XHB index appears to be entering a Stage 4 decline, with declining relative strength [1] and the last 6 weeks trading below the 30-week weighted moving average [2]. Tighten up stops in this sector.
 


Austar [AUN]
Losses totalled $682 million last year, including $240 million of write-downs.(more)

WMC [WMC]
Chairman Ian Burgess and chief executive Hugh Morgan are to retire. (more)





Conclusion

Short-term: Avoid new positions until the Slow Stochastic and MACD signal a resumption of the rally.
Medium-term: Wait for a new high on the All Ords.
Long-term: Look for a secondary cycle reversal on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 - if they break above their January highs.


Colin Twiggs


P.S. We are trying out new Email software. Please report if you experience any problems with the trading diary.

Please forward this to your friends and colleagues.




Back Issues
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.






Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.


Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.