Trading Diary
January 1, 2002

These are extracts from my daily stock trading diary. They are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term share trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




New Year Resolutions
Our resolution for 2002 is to continue the phenomenal growth experienced in 2001:
  • Our immediate goal is to achieve 1 million page impressions in a month. Present figures are 400,000 to 500,000. 
  • This will enable us to expand the range and depth of free services offered by Incredible Charts.
Plan the work and work the plan
A good resolution for traders is:
  • To develop a sound trading system and to stick to it.
The greatest strength that a trader/investor can have is ability to stick to their preconceived plan in the face of continual doubts, fears and conflicting information. (more)
 
The first quarter
January is normally a good month for investors, with stocks rising by more than the average month. February and March historically yield below-average returns. (more)
 
USA
The latest rally on the Dow has failed to make a new high, indicating uncertainty, while the bearish MACD divergence is still evident. The down-trend on the Nasdaq continues.
 
The year ahead
Forecasters are predicting that the mild recession will end and be followed by a gradual recovery. (more)
 
Last year
Even the most pessimistic forecasters failed to predict the depth of the recession in 2001. (more)
 
Australia - ASX
The All Ords has climbed to 3360 on weak volume. The challenge here is to stick to the trading plan: there is still a bearish divergence on the MACD so avoid new entries.
 

 
 




Conclusion
Short-term: The Dow still shows weakness and the Nasdaq is in a down-trend. Tighten up on stop losses and avoid new entries.
Long-term trades: Wait for a correction on the secondary cycle.
 
Best wishes for the year ahead.
Colin Twiggs
 
 
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.