Trading Diary
November 16, 2001

This is my daily stock trading diary. It is intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term share trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The mid-week rally seems to have dissipated, with the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq closing largely unchanged.
 
Wall Street signals
The steep yield curve points to a strong recovery in the new year. (more)
 
Australia  (ASX)
The All Ords took a breather after a week of strong gains, closing down at 3258 on strong volume. We may have another test of the 21-day moving average in the week ahead, but the trend still looks strong.
 
Just remember: The broader the base, the stronger the trend. The trough in September had a very narrow base and we could well experience a pull-back to near these levels.
 

 
Telstra
Management are "subdued" in their outlook. (more)
 
Healthcare & Biotechnology
Healthcare & Biotech are the top performing industry group on the ASX, measured over 3 years. Heralded as the "technology of the future", I have a lurking suspicion that Biotechs could be more accurately described as the next "DotCom" sector. There will be some spectacular successes but there will also be some spectacular failures.
 
Longer-term, active investors should restrict themselves to stocks with sound fundamentals:
  • Look for positive earnings per share, stocks that are viable businesses and not just good "ideas";
  • Avoid stocks that are overly reliant on a single product.
  • (more).




Conclusion
Short-term trades: There is a higher risk entering this late in a trend. Use trailing buy-stops to time entries and ensure that stop losses are placed within the 2% maximum acceptable loss.
Long-term trades: Wait for a pull-back on the secondary cycle.
 
Colin Twiggs
 
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.