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Link for this issue: http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/2015-03-05-markets-gold-forex.php
 


Market strength

By Colin Twiggs
March 5th, 2015 6:30 p.m. AEDT (2:30 a.m. ET)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.


Performance Update

ASX200 Prime Momentum

The ASX200 Prime Momentum strategy returned +10.75%* for the 12 months ended 28 February 2015, compared to +14.53% for the ASX200 Accumulation Index. Performance of +24.19% p.a.* over 24 months, however, still comfortably exceeds the index (+12.58%). ASX stocks underperformed in 2014, but macroeconomic and volatility filters continue to indicate low to moderate risk and we maintain full exposure to equities in expectation of a recovery.

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Prime Momentum strategy returned +22.39%* over the 12 months ended 28 February 2015, compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Performance since inception (November 2013) is +26.78% p.a.*, compared to 16.9% for the index.

Divergence between the ASX 200 and S&P 500 may continue and investors should consider splitting their investment between the two markets.

* Results are unaudited and subject to revision.

Market Insight

Apart from China and India, major markets continue to look bullish.

The S&P 500 is retracing to test support at 2080/2100, but respect is likely and would confirm an advance to 2200*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow high above zero indicates strong long-term buying pressure.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2100 + ( 2100 - 2000 ) = 2200

A quarterly chart shows the Nasdaq 100 headed for its Dotcom high of 4800. Expect major resistance at this level. Correction back to 4000 and the primary trendline may provide a long-term buying opportunity.

Nasdaq 100 Index

CBOE Volatility Index at 14 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Europe

Germany's DAX found resistance at 11500. Expect retracement to test new support at 11000, but respect is likely and would confirm the target of 12000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates healthy buying pressure.

DAX

* Target calculation: 11000 + ( 11000 - 10000 ) = 12000

The Footsie is consolidating below its December 1999 high of 6950. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating high above zero indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout would signal a fresh primary advance, with a long-term target of 8000*. Follow-through above 7000 would confirm.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 8000

Asia

China's Shanghai Composite Index faces resistance at 3400. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 3050 would warn of a decline to test the primary trendline at 2700. Breakout above 3400 is less likely, but would signal another primary advance.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is likely to retrace to test new support at its 2007 high of 18000/18300. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Respect is likely and would signal an advance to 20000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 20000

India's Sensex encountered stiff resistance at 30000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below 28000 would warn of a correction to 26500/27000. Respect of the primary trendline would establish a solid base for further advances, otherwise we may see an extended consolidation below 30000.

SENSEX

Australia

The ASX 200 encountered resistance at 6000, retracing to test support at 5850. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow continues to reflect healthy buying pressure. Respect of support would indicate continuation of the advance, towards 6150*. Follow-through above 6000 would confirm. Breach of 5850 is less likely, but would warn of a correction back to the rising trendline, around 5650.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 - 5150 ) = 6150

More....

Crude in contango

Dollar breaks out, Gold tests support

China's infrastructure boom is over



Boris Nemtsov was a tireless fighter and one of the most skilled critics of the Putin government, a role that was by no means his only possible destiny. A successful mayor in Nizhny-Novgorod and a capable cabinet member and parliamentarian, he could have led a comfortable life in government as a token liberal voice of reform. But Boris was unqualified to work for the Putin regime. He had principles, you see, and could not bear to watch our country slide back into the totalitarian depths.

~ Garry Kasparov

Disclaimer

Research & Investment Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorized Representative (AR Number 384 397) of Andika Pty Ltd which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 297069).

The information on this web site and in the newsletters is general in nature and does not consider your personal circumstances. Please contact your professional financial adviser for advice tailored to your needs.

Research & Investment Pty Ltd ("R&I") has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites and newsletters. Our research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate.

No guarantee as to the capital value of investments, nor future returns are made by R&I. Neither R&I nor its employees make any representation, warranty or guarantee that the information provided is complete, accurate, current or reliable.

You are under no obligation to use these services and should always compare financial services/products to find one which best meets your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

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Important Warning About Simulated Results

Research & Investment (R&I) specialise in developing, testing and researching investment strategies and systems. Within the R&I web site and newsletters, you will find information about investment strategies and their performance. It is important that you understand that results from R&I research are simulated and not actual results.

No representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Simulated performance results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight and do not involve financial risk. No modeling can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual investment. Account size, brokerage and slippage may also diverge from simulated results. Numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific investment system cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated performance results and may adversely affect actual investment results.

To the extent permitted by law, R&I and its employees, agents and authorised representatives exclude all liability for any loss or damage (including indirect, special or consequential loss or damage) arising from the use of, or reliance on, any information offered by R&I whether or not caused by any negligent act or omission.



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