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Link for this issue: http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/2015-04-30-markets-gold-economy.php
 


Stocks bullish but India threatens reversal

By Colin Twiggs
April 30th, 2015 7:30 p.m. AET (3:30 a.m. EDT)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.


Next Portfolio Update

A slight change to our normal routine. The next portfolio update for Research & Investment will be on 8th May 2015. If all goes well, future updates will be scheduled on the second Wednesday of each month.

Market Insight

India's Sensex is testing primary support at 27000 with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warning of a reversal. Breach of primary support would signal a primary down-trend; follow-through below 26500 would confirm. Recovery above 29000, however, would suggest that this is simply a mid-point consolidation below 30000.

SENSEX

Apart from India, Asia and North America are bullish. But concerns over Greece weigh on Europe. Australia continues a tentative advance.

North America

The S&P 500 is hesitating at the 2120 resistance level, upper border of a bullish ascending triangle. But long tails on the last two candles indicate support at 2100, a bullish sign. Breakout would confirm an advance to 2200*. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow has leveled off after the recent decline. Recovery would form a large trough above zero, another bullish sign. Penetration of the rising trendline is less likely, but would warn of a correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2120 + ( 2120 - 2040 ) = 2200

Same as usual. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Canada's TSX 60 continues to test long-term resistance at 900. Narrow consolidation above 890 is a bullish sign. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero also suggests a primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 - 800 ) = 1000

Europe

Germany's DAX is undergoing a correction, likely to test support at 11000 and the primary trendline. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure.

DAX

The Footsie is testing support at 6950/7000. Breach would warn of a correction with initial support at 6700. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow similarly indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of the rising trendline at 6950 is unlikely, but would be a bullish sign, signaling a fresh advance.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 8000

Asia

A monthly chart shows the extent of the Shanghai Composite's exponential rise. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Skyrocketing margin lending does not indicate a reversal, but does warn of fragility.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 3500 + ( 3500 - 2500 ) = 4500

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index continues to test the new support level at 19500/20000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect would indicate an advance to 21000 and a long-term target of 22000*. Penetration of the rising trendline is unlikely.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 - 18000 ) = 22000

Australia

The ASX 200 is testing 5750. A long tail on today's daily candle indicates a fair measure of support. Decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is also mild. Respect of 5750 would indicate another test of 6000. Breakout above 6000 would offer a target of 6250*. Breach of support at 5650, the September peak, is unlikely, but warn of a strong correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 - 5750 ) = 6250

More....

GDP, the Dollar and Treasury yields

More effective than the riot police: your mama

US current account haemorrhage

Gold 'Barricks' upward

Valentina Lisitsa: Dead Things [video]



There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.

~ Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

Disclaimer

Research & Investment Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorized Representative (AR Number 384 397) of Andika Pty Ltd which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL 297069).

The information on this web site and in the newsletters is general in nature and does not consider your personal circumstances. Please contact your professional financial adviser for advice tailored to your needs.

Research & Investment Pty Ltd ("R&I") has made every effort to ensure the reliability of the views and recommendations expressed in the reports published on its websites and newsletters. Our research is based upon information known to us or which was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate.

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Important Warning About Simulated Results

Research & Investment (R&I) specialise in developing, testing and researching investment strategies and systems. Within the R&I web site and newsletters, you will find information about investment strategies and their performance. It is important that you understand that results from R&I research are simulated and not actual results.

No representation is made that any investor will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Simulated performance results are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight and do not involve financial risk. No modeling can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual investment. Account size, brokerage and slippage may also diverge from simulated results. Numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific investment system cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated performance results and may adversely affect actual investment results.

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