Bears threaten US rally
By Colin Twiggs
February 4th, 2016 6:00 p.m. AEDT (2:00 a.m. EST)
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Rallies on the Dow and S&P 500 reflect a more positive outlook for the US economy. But the FTSE 100 has followed China's Shanghai Composite and India's SENSEX into bear territory, while Germany's DAX, Japan's Nikkei 225 and Australia's ASX 200 threaten key support levels. There is very little to cheer about at present.
Dow Jones Global Index is testing resistance at the former primary support level of 290. Respect is likely and breach of 270 would confirm another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero flag a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 290 - ( 320 - 290 ) = 260
Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered above primary support at 16000 but respect of 17000 is likely and would warn of another decline. Breach of 16000 ofers a target of 14000*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty.
* Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000
The S&P 500 recovered above 1900, while rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-/medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 2000 but breakout is unlikely. Breach of support at 1900 would signal another decline, with a (medium-term) target of 1700*.
* Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to range between 20 and 30 reflecting hesitancy — and the potential to react quickly to bad news.
Canada's TSX 60 also retraced to test resistance at 750. Respect is likely and breach of 700 would offer a target of 650*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 700 - ( 750 - 700 ) = 650
Germany's DAX is testing primary support at 9500. Peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum warn of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 9300 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 9500 - ( 11500 - 9500 ) = 7500
The Footsie retreated below 6000, signaling a primary down-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero further strengthen the signal. Long-term target for a decline is 5000*.
* Target calculation: 6000 - ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 5000
Support has given way on the Shanghai Composite Index, strengthening the primary down-trend signaled last August when 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero. Target for the decline is 2400*.
* Target calculation: 3000 - ( 3600 - 3000 ) = 2400
Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is testing primary support at 17000. Breach is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend signaled by 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero.
* Target calculation: 94 - ( 106 - 94 ) = 82
Two failed swings on India's Sensex (failing to reach the upper trend channel) warn of increasing selling pressure. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero confirm this. Follow-through below 24000 would offer a target of 22500*.
* Target calculation: 25000 - ( 27500 - 25000 ) = 22500
The ASX 200 staged a short rally today but sentiment remains bearish and respect of the recent high at 5050 would warn of another decline. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the weight of global bear markets is likely to sap any enthusiasm. Reversal below 4850 would offer a medium-term target of 4650*, or 4000* in the long-term.
* Target calculation: 4850 - ( 5050 - 4850 ) = 4650; 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000
The largest sector, Banks, is already in a primary down-trend, having been singled out for particular attention by the bears. Breach of support at 7500/7600 would warn of a decline to 6600*.
* Target calculation: 7600 - ( 8600 - 7600 ) = 6600
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.
~ Ed Seykota
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