Nikkei breaks 20,000 but India weakens
By Colin Twiggs
April 23rd, 2015 6:30 p.m. AET (2:30 a.m. EDT)
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Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed above resistance at 20000, signaling an advance to 21000 and offering a long-term target of 22000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates long-term buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but penetration of the rising trendline is unlikely.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 - 18000 ) = 22000
The S&P 500 is headed for a test of resistance at 2120, the upper border of a bullish ascending triangle. Breakout would confirm an advance to 2200*. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow declined during the consolidation, but now appears set for another rally which would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Breach of support at 2040/2050 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 1980/2000.
* Target calculation: 2120 + ( 2120 - 2040 ) = 2200
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
Canada's TSX 60 index retreated from long-term resistance at 900, but narrow consolidation above the rising trendline would be a bullish sign. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 - 800 ) = 1000
Germany's DAX retreated from resistance at Deutsche Bank's long-term target of 12500. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of support at 11600 would be a bullish sign, while breach would test the primary trendline at 11000.
* Target calculation: 12500 + ( 12500 - 12000 ) = 13000
The Footsie also retraced, to test new support at 7000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Respect of the rising trendline at 6950 would be a bullish sign, while penetration would warn of a correction to 6700.
* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 8000
The Shanghai Composite Index advance continues. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Anticipates further monetary easing.
* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 - 2400 ) = 4400
India's Sensex continues to experience selling pressure, with a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero warning of a reversal. Breach of primary support at 27000 would confirm. Recovery above 29000 would suggest a false alarm and another test of 30000.
The ASX 200 broke the lower border of its ascending triangle, warning of a test of support at 5750. The decline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow is relatively mild, however, and respect of support would indicate another test of 6000. The primary trend remains upward and breakout above 6000 would offer a target of 6250*.
* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 - 5750 ) = 6250
No matter how cynical you get, it is impossible to keep up.
~ Lily Tomlin
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