sitesearch
 

Gold finds support as Euro falls

By Colin Twiggs
August 7th, 2014 2:30 a.m. EDT (4:30 p.m. AEST)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes. Any advice contained therein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs and must not be construed as advice to buy, sell, hold or otherwise deal with any securities or other investments. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained therein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.


  • Treasury yields warn of a decline
  • Euro trending lower
  • Dollar halts at resistance
  • Gold finds short-term support

Interest Rates and the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes retreated below 2.50 percent, warning of a decline to 2.00 percent*. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Reversal above 2.65 is unlikely, but indicate an advance to 3.00 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 - ( 3.00 - 2.50 ) = 2.00

The euro is in a primary down-trend, having broken primary support at $1.35. Target for the initial decline is $1.30*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero confirms the down-trend. Recovery above $1.35 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.35 - ( 1.40 - 1.35 ) = 1.30

The Dollar Index has run into resistance at 81.50, evidenced by tall wicks ("shadows") on the last two weekly candles. Weakness in Europe is likely to drive the Dollar higher, while lower treasury yields would retard the advance. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 81.50 would signal a primary advance to 84*. Reversal below 81.00 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 79.00.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.50 - ( 81.50 - 79.00 ) = 84.00

Gold

Gold found short-term support at $1280/$1300. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around zero continues to indicate hesitancy. Breach of support at $1240/$1250 would warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1350 remains unlikely at present, but would indicate another test of $1400/$1420.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 - ( 1400 - 1200 ) = 1000


The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory, is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory. The truth is far more frightening. Nobody is in control....

~ Alan Moore

Perfect Your Market Timing
Learn how to manage your market risk.





The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.


 
Top of Page