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Gold: $1200 next?

By Colin Twiggs
November 27th, 2013 9:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p:m AEDT)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes. Any advice contained therein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs and must not be construed as advice to buy, sell, hold or otherwise deal with any securities or other investments. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained therein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.



Gold

Spot gold consolidating in a narrow band below support at $1250/ounce suggests a test of $1200. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal. Breakout below the June low ($1200) would confirm a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1260 is unlikely, but would indicate a rally to $1350.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1250 - ( 1350 - 1250 ) = 1150

Silver broke through support at $20.50/ounce and is headed for a test of primary support at $18/ounce. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would confirm.

Spot Silver

Often a leading indicator of spot prices, the Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, broke primary support at 210 to signal a primary down-trend. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

Gold Bugs Index

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes retreated below 2.75. Breakout would signal a fresh primary advance, with a target of 3.50 percent* (breakout above 3.00 percent would confirm). Reversal below the rising trendline is less likely, but would warn of trend weakness and another test of 2.50. Higher yields would help strengthen the dollar.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 - 2.50 ) = 3.50

The Dollar Index retraced to test the new support level at 80.50. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at 79 would confirm. Breakout above 81.50 remains as likely, however, and would indicate an advance to 84*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81.5 + ( 81.5 - 79 ) = 84

Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar would increase downward pressure on gold.

Crude Oil

Nymex crude is undergoing a strong correction and is likely to test primary support at $85/$86 per barrel. Reversal of 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Brent crude is rising despite an easing of tensions with Iran. The primary reason for the divergence is supply. Iain Armstrong, oil analyst at Brewin Dolphin, earlier in the year explained that Brent is effectively a global brand — affected by global issues of supply/demand — while Nymex is a "local" brand and benefits from plentiful shale oil in the US.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

A resurgent Shanghai Composite Index is supporting commodity prices. Recovery of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index above 126 would indicate a bear trap. A peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum, however, warns of a continuing down-trend. Respect of the resistance level, as indicated by follow-through below 122, would signal a decline to 114*.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 124 - ( 134 - 124 ) = 114



Life does not ask what we want. It presents us with options.

~ Thomas Sowell

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