Dow threatens decline to 10000
By Colin Twiggs
October 4th, 2011 4:30 a.m. ET (6:30 p.m. AET)
Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing the band of support between 10600 and 10800. An up-tick in volume indicates some buying support but this appears insufficient to withstand downward pressure. Failure of support at 10600 is likely and would signal a primary decline to 10000*.
* Target calculation: 11000 - ( 12000 - 11000 ) = 10000
The S&P 500 index is similarly testing support at 1100, while 21-day Twiggs Money Flow declining below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of 1100 would signal a primary decline to 950*.
* Target calculation: 1100 - ( 1250 - 1100 ) = 950
The NASDAQ 100 is headed for a test of support at 2040. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would signal another decline with a target of 1700*.
* Target calculation: 2000 - ( 2300 - 2000 ) = 1700
The FTSE 100 is testing support at 5000. Failure would warn of a down-swing to 4400*, but long tails and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate medium-term buying pressure. Respect of support is likely and would continue the line between 5000 and 5450.
* Target calculation: 5000 - ( 5600 - 5000 ) = 4400
Germany's DAX index displays similar medium-term buying pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Respect of support at 5000 is likely and recovery above 5700 would indicate another bear rally.
* Target calculation: 5000 - ( 6000 - 5000 ) = 4000
The Hang Seng index is falling steeply, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warning of selling pressure. Target for the current-down-swing is 16000*.
* Target calculation: 19 - ( 22 - 19 ) = 16
The Shanghai Exchange is closed for Chung Yeung Festival, but the Shanghai Composite Index was testing support at 2350 on Friday. Failure of support would offer a long-term target of 1800*.
* Target calculation: 2400 - ( 3000 - 2400 ) = 1800
It was the change in my own attitude that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating.
~ Jesse Livermore in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre.