Dow Slips, Dollar Strengthens

By Colin Twiggs
August 12, 2010 5:30 a.m. EDT (7:30 p:m AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow fell sharply in early trading, retreating from the upper border of the broadening wedge formation. Twiggs Money Flow penetrated its rising trendline, warning of another correction. Reversal below the former primary support level at 9900 would confirm the primary down-trend. Upward breakouts in a bear market are notoriously unreliable, with roughly two-thirds of such breakouts ending in a bull trap.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index rallied off support at 80. Penetration of the descending trendline indicates that the down-trend is weakening. The signal would be strengthened if Twiggs Momentum rises above zero. Reversal below 80 would signal a primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index


Gold is consolidating above short-term support at $1190; expect a test of resistance at $1220. Respect would re-test primary support at $1160, while breakout would indicate an advance to $1260. Twiggs Momentum (21-day) respect of the zero line from below, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1220 + ( 1220 - 1060 ) = 1380

Crude Oil

Crude retreated below its rising trendline, warning of a bull trap. A 21-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero would confirm the signal.

Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 - 70 ) = 90


The euro is retracing to test the new support level at $1.25. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would indicate another test of primary support at $1.19. A Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough above the zero line would also confirm the up-trend.

Euro US Dollar

UK Pound Sterling

The pound is retracing to test the new support level at $1.55. Respect would confirm the advance with a target of $1.67*. A Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough above the zero line would strengthen the up-trend. Reversal below the rising trendline, however, would warn of trend weakness.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.55 + ( 1.55 - 1.43 ) = 1.67

Japanese Yen

The dollar is testing primary support at ¥85. A small bullish divergence on Twiggs Momentum suggests a rally to test resistance. Failure of primary support, however, would offer a target of ¥75*.

US Dollar Yen

* Target calculations: 85 - ( 95 - 85 ) = 75

Australian Dollar

The Aussie dollar retreats as global uncertainty rises, reversal of the carry trade depressing the little battler and strengthening the greenback. Expect a test of support at $0.8750. Failure would test primary support at $0.8100, while respect would indicate an advance to $0.9350. A Twiggs Momentum (21-day) trough above the zero line would confirm the primary up-trend. In the long term, breakout above $0.9350 would offer a target of parity.

Australian Dollar US Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.93 + ( 0.93 - 0.81 ) = 1.05

Elections should be held on April 16th — the day after we pay our income taxes. That is one of the few things that might discourage politicians from being big spenders.

~ Thomas Sowell

Perfect Your Market Timing
Learn how to manage your market risk.

The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.

Top of Page