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Gold , Oil & The Dollar

By Colin Twiggs
November 7, 2006 6:30 p.m. AEDT (2:30 a.m. ET)

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use. The next newsletter (an update on Stocks & Indexes) will be on Saturday.


Gold

Spot gold rallied strongly since breaking through resistance at $600. There has been no retracement, so far, to test the new support level, but this remains a likely possibility.





Source: Netdania


Medium Term: Breakout from the upper border of the large symmetrical triangle is a bullish sign. The target is calculated as $790 : (600 + {730 - 540}), but resistance at the previous high makes $730 a more conservative objective.

Long Term: Gold is in a primary up-trend with support at $540. If oil prices continue to weaken, the present pattern may evolve into a stage 3 top, followed by a test of the long-term supporting trendline.





Source: Netdania


Crude Oil

December Light Crude respected resistance at $62 while troughs edged progressively lower (at $59, $58 and then $57). The pattern is rather untidy, but recognizable as a right-angled descending broadening formation. Breakouts may occur in either direction and are a reliable indicator of future trend direction. A failure swing would give early indication of likely breakout direction: watch for a higher trough or a lower peak.

Medium Term: Expect strong support at $55.





Long Term: Retracement from $80 to $55 may merely establish the base for continuation of the larger up-trend, but this could take time to emerge.


Currencies

The euro encountered short-term resistance at $1.280. A brief retracement or consolidation below this level would be a bullish sign.

Medium Term: Consolidation of the last 6 months is bounded by support at $1.25 and resistance at $1.30. Expect the current rally to test $1.30, but direction of any future breakout remains uncertain.

Long Term: Upward breakout (from the consolidation) would test the previous high of $1.37, while a downward breakout would test primary support at $1.165, threatening to complete a large head and shoulders reversal.





Source: Netdania


Treasury yields

The 10-year yield respected support at 4.60%, but remains in bear territory below its 100-day moving average.

Medium Term: Breakout above the recent high of 4.80% would complete a small double bottom with a target of 5.00%. Failure of support and a break of the long-term trendline, on the other hand, would signal long-term weakness.

The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) continues its down-trend below zero, increasing the risk of an economic slow-down.




Long Term:  Probability of recession in the next four quarters increased to 41 per cent according to the Wright Model. A rise above 50 per cent would be cause for concern. 







What follows is ever closely linked to what precedes;
it is not a procession of isolated events, merely obeying the laws of sequence, but a rational continuity.
Moreover, just as the things already in existence are all harmoniously coordinated,
things in the act of coming into existence exhibit the same marvel of concatenation,
rather than simply the bare fact of succession.

~ Marcus Aurelius


Technical Analysis and Predictions

I believe that Technical Analysis should not be used to make predictions because we never know the outcome of a particular pattern or series of events with 100 per cent certainty. The best that we can hope to achieve is a probability of around 80 per cent for any particular outcome: something unexpected will occur at least one in five times.

My approach is to assign probabilities to each possible outcome. Assigning actual percentages would imply a degree of precision which, most of the time, is unachievable. Terms used are more general: "this is a strong signal"; "this is likely"; "expect this to follow"; "this is less likely to occur"; "this is unlikely"; and so on. Bear in mind that there are times, especially when the market is in equilibrium, when we may face several scenarios with fairly even probabilities.

Analysis is also separated into three time frames: short, medium and long-term. While one time frame may be clear, another could be uncertain. Obviously, we have the greatest chance of success when all three time frames are clear.

The market is a dynamic system. I often compare trading to a military operation, not because of its' oppositional nature, but because of the complexity, the continual uncertainty created by conflicting intelligence and the element of chance that can disrupt even the best made plans. Prepare thoroughly, but allow for the unexpected. The formula is simple: trade when probabilities are in your favor; apply proper risk (money) management; and you will succeed.

For further background, please read About The Trading Diary.


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