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Trading Diary
January 14, 2006

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.




USA

The S&P 500 failed to make further gains, but remains positive provided that it holds above the new 1270 support level.





The breakout above the upper border of the long-term bearish rising wedge pattern signals a stronger primary up-trend. The signal would be confirmed if a retracement respects the new support level of 1270. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) remains positive after a higher trough at [L1].







The Dow Industrial Average briefly rose above 11000 on Monday before retreating Thursday with a strong red candle. The index will remain bullish if it holds above the new support level at 10950, while a close below the low of [5] would signal weakness. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) rose above zero, but remains weak.





The Dow Jones Transportation Average continues to show a strong primary up-trend, while Fedex and UPS show signs of weakness. Overall, still a positive sign for the economy and equity markets.





The Nasdaq Composite's successful breakout from the bearish rising wedge pattern is a bullish sign for equity markets. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation after the last trough at the zero line.







Treasury yields

Short-term yields continue to climb, sending the yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) close to the key zero level. This should have a negative impact on banking sector margins and is an excellent long-term predictor of economic down-turns. The Fed may be forced to slow short-term interest rate hikes in an attempt to prevent further weakness. Not a good position to be in if inflation starts to rise.







Gold

New York: Spot gold broke through initial resistance (at $540), closing at $556.50 on Friday. The breakout above $540 confirms the strong primary up-trend and gives a target of $580: 540 + (540 - 500).




United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 consolidated after a strong rally in the past two weeks. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals strong accumulation: holding above zero since [Dec 1]. The target for the breakout is close to 6000: 5500 + (5500 - 5140) = 5860.





Japan

There appears to be some profit-taking, with the Nikkei 225 pausing at its long-term target of 16400: 12000 + ( 12000 - 7600 [April 2003]). This bull-trend appears far from spent: Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) has held above the zero line since July 2005, signaling strong accumulation.







ASX Australia

Last week's short-lived retracement, followed by a strong blue candle at [1] indicates that the All Ordinaries is in a strong up-trend. However, a turbulent week for major US indices caused uncertainty in the local market, evidenced by the subsequent consolidation. We may see another retracement in the week ahead, but as long as this holds above support at 4620 the market is in positive territory.





Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) has so far held above the zero line. A low above [L1] would be a positive sign. The index is in a strong primary up-trend with a target close to 5000: 4620 + (4620 - 4300) = 4940.





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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
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Wishing you a healthy and prosperous New Year.


Colin Twiggs


A misty morning does not signify a cloudy day.

~ Ancient Proverb


 
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