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Trading Diary
February 3, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average formed an inside day, closing at 10505 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The consolidation below resistance at 10600 signals uncertainty. A fall below Thursday's low of 10417 would signal reversal to a down-trend, with a likely test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite formed an inside day, closing at 2066 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is uncertain.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 also formed an inside day, closing 1 point up at 1136 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below Thursday's low of 1122 would signal reversal to a down-trend.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155. Bearish below 1122.

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 would signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is down at 84.62%.


Cisco beats forecasts
The Network equipment manufacturer reports earnings of 18 cents a share and sales up 14.5% over the same quarter last year.
(more)


Treasury yields
The retracement continues, with the yield on 10-year treasury notes down at 4.10%.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% would signal reversal.





Gold
New York (21.48): Spot gold tested resistance at 400 before sliding to $398.60.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries continues to consolidate below resistance, closing 10 points lower at 3277 on higher volume; a bearish sign. 
A fall below 3271 would signal an intermediate down-trend, with a likely test of support at 3160.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3271 (Thursday's low).



Twiggs Money Flow (100) has penetrated its 3-month support level; a further bearish sign.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 (the October 1 low) would signal reversal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.


Energy Developments [ENE]
Last covered on September 4, 2003.
ENE has formed a broad Stage 1 base over the past year. It broke above resistance at 2.50 but has then consolidated in a narrow range between 2.80 and 2.25 for the last 6 months. What is intriguing is the continued rise of Twiggs Money Flow, signaling accumulation.



In a shorter time frame, the false break (June 2003) below the previous low signaled the start of a fast rally. Price later completed a double bottom pattern, with a break above 2.50, but failed to break through resistance at 2.80.



Price fell back to test support at 2.25. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) shows weakness, with declining peaks. The break below support should put us on the alert for further bear signals. A pull-back that respects the new resistance level would be a strong bear signal.



Apologies for the eye-strain, I had to reduce the indicator width to fit the 6-month price chart into the image. Price gapped down at today's open to test support at 2.25, but then rallied strongly to form an open-close reversal (a bullish sign) on strong volume. We may see a rally testing resistance at 2.80, but the overall market is bearish at present. A close below 2.25 would be a bear signal; a close above 2.80 would be a bull signal. It would be prudent to wait for a pull-back to confirm the breakout: by respecting the new resistance/support level.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
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Colin Twiggs


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~ Christopher Zeeman.





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