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November 28, 2003
The Dow Industrial Average closed almost unchanged at 9782.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 9500 and 9230.
Twiggs Money Flow shows a bearish divergence.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1880 and 1840.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate down- trend is weak.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1064. Bearish below 1048 (Wednesday's low).
Intermediate: Bullish above 1064.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped up to 4.32%, after a marginal break below support at 4.19%.
The intermediate down-trend is weak..
The primary trend is up.
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week up at $398.10.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow band below resistance at 400 is a bullish sign.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords crosses above 3212, the November 12 low. Bearish below 3182 (Friday's low).
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3212. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is rising).
- Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) increased to 19 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Gold is the only prominent sector.
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- Wattyl - WYL
- BHP Billiton - BHP
- Jubilee Mines - JBM
- Adsteam - ADZ
- Amcor - AMC
- Cochlear - COH
This attempt to find order tends to block one's ability to go with the flow of the markets,
because we see what we expect to see rather than what is really happening.
~ Van K Tharp: Trade your way to Financial Freedom.
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