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Trading Diary
November 19, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied to 9690 after testing the primary trendline. Low volume signals a lack of enthusiasm from buyers. 
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite recovered to close at 1900 on average volume but remains below the primary trendline.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1840 and 1780, the previous two lows.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 closed 8 points up at 1042 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at the primary trendline.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1062, the high of the November 7th. Bearish below 1034 (Wednesday's low).



The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1062.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased to 80.29% (November 19).


Hewlett-Packard
HP reports sales up 10% and earnings, before one-off charges, up 50% (at 36 cents a share) compared to the same quarter last year. (more)

Forex trading scam
The FBI arrest and charge 47 traders in connection with a multi-million dollar currency trading fraud. (more)

Treasury yields
Completing what may turn out to be a false (or marginal) break, the yield on 10-year treasury notes reversed up, to 4.24%. 
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (18:26): Spot gold retreated to $395.30.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 4 points higher at 3189. Long tails and higher volumes over the last 2 days signal buying support.



The intermediate trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed above its signal line.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords crosses back above resistance at 3250. Bearish below Wednesday's low of 3175.

The primary trend is up, but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). The index is below its supporting trendline, signaling weakness. Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals strong distribution, after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Peptech [PTD]
Last covered on October 8, 2003.
Peptech announced that it has resolved its dispute with Abbott Laboratories, where Abbott was withholding royalty payments on the arthritis drug Humira. (more)

PTD has formed a triple bottom over the last year with Twiggs Money Flow (100) signaling strong distribution.



Seven days prior to the trading halt on November 17th, the stock started to rise, with Twiggs Money Flow jumping sharply at [a].



There was a similar rise on Relative Strength (xao), followed by higher troughs above the new RS support level at [b]; a strong bull signal.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


The man who can master his time can master nearly anything.

~ Winston Churchill




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