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ETOs and Warrants
We are on target to introduce ETOs and warrants this week. 
US stocks to follow.




Trading Diary
October 9, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average made a false break above resistance at 9686 on higher volume, heavy selling pressure forcing a weak close at 9680.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A rise above resistance at 9686 will signal an up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite also made a false break, closing at 1912 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A rise above resistance at 1914 will signal an up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


Another false break, this time on the S&P 500, saw the index retreat back to close at 1039 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A rise above resistance at 1040 will signal resumption of the up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator was at 80.41% yesterday (October 8).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1040. Bearish below 1026.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.


Jobless claims fall
New unemployment claims fell to 382,000 last week, from a revised 405,000 the week before. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.30%.
The intermediate down-trend is weak. 
The primary trend is up.




Gold
New York (20:15): Spot gold fell sharply to $370.60.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. There is a band of support at 343 to 350. A fall below the lower level would signal reversal.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke through resistance at 3250, closing 9 points up at 3257 on lower volume.



The intermediate trend has turned upwards. Support is at 3238 to 3250.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.  

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) has turned up, threatening to cross above the zero line.


Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3250.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3000.

OAMPS Limited [OMP]
OMP is in a primary up-trend which has lasted more than 4 years; an exceptional performance.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) and (21) show bearish divergences. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising strongly.
Now would not be a good time to increase (intermediate or long-term) positions, with the secondary rally extended a long way above the primary trendline.



Equivolume shows a false break below support at 3.50, with a weak close back at 3.64. 
A close below 3.50 would be a bear signal.



Orbital Engine [OEC]
I had to use a log scale with OEC because of the massive fall over the last 3 years; from 2.40 down to 0.20.
Price has formed a base over the last 9 months and has lately broken above resistance before pulling back to test the new support level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has surged upwards.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising. 
Resistance appeared to have formed at 0.18.



The equivolume chart shows that resistance was heaviest at 0.17: the bar at [1] shows heavier volume than the bar at [2]. The short-term pull-back at [3] respected support at 0.18 but the stronger pull-back at [5] only held at 0.17. Where there are two possible support levels in close proximity it is always advisable to place your stops below the lower of the two.



The power bar at [6] reflects very strong volume.
A rise above the high of [4] will be a strong bull signal. A fall below 0.17 will be bearish.
Conservative traders may wait for the next correction so that they can enter nearer the low, allowing tighter stops.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too.

Rudyard Kipling: If




Backup
Use the File >> Export Files command to back up your watchlists (.viz) and project files (.ini) to a removable disk.

Ignore the sub-folders in your directory. These are merely used for the Undo/Redo command.



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