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Trading Diary
September 12, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed almost unchanged at 9472 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up. Continued low volume signals weakness.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite closed 9 points higher at 1855 on average volume. A rise above 1860 will signal resumption of the fast up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


 


The S&P 500 closed up 3 points at 1019 after a false break below support at 1010 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is slightly higher at 79.78% (September 12).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1023.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1023.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.


Fund Managers exposed
Morningstar recommends that investors sell mutual funds run by four major fund managers, after allegations that they allowed hedge fund Canary Capital Partners special trading access to some of their funds, at investors expense. Canary agrees to a $40 million settlement of charges "without admitting or denying wrongdoing". (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is down from last week at 4.27% after testing support at 4.20%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.





Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold retreated to close the week at $375.00, after repeated tests of resistance at 382.
The primary trend is up.
Price has broken above a symmetrical triangle formed since the start of the year. If gold rises above resistance at 382, the target is the 10-year high of 420.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 2 points lower at 3195, signaling uncertainty with an inside day on reasonable volume. The index is down 25 points for the week.



The intermediate trend is up but the index has broken its upward trendline.
The primary trend is up. 

MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; 
Twiggs Money Flow displays a bearish divergence.



Market Strategy
Short-term: Long above 3220.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3160.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .

Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising).
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling). 
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) has fallen to 59 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (7)
  • Gold (5)
  • Diversified Commercial (3)
  • Construction & Engineering (3)
  • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Australian Stock Exchange - ASX
  • Croesus - CRS
  • Kingsgate - KCN
  • Lihir - LHG
  • Newcrest - NCM
  • Oxiana - OXR
  • Sons of Gwalia - SGW
  • Challenger - CFG
  • Australian Gas Light - AGL
  • Australian Pipeline Trust - APA
  • Caltex Australia - CTX
  • MIA Group - MIA
  • Sonic Healthcare - SHL


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


Great minds have purposes; others have wishes.

~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).




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