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Trading Diary
August 27, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow failed to make any gains, forming an inside day on low volume and closing marginally lower at 9334.
The intermediate trend is up. MACD has completed a bearish divergence, signaling weakness.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite commenced another rally, gaining 11 points to close at 1782. Low volume suggests weakness.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


 


The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 997. Low volume and an inside day signal a lack of buying support.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased slightly to 76.99% (August 26).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1000. Short if below 993.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.


IMF uneasy with US budget
The International Monetary Fund is reported to be unhappy with the US budget, maintaining that it is too optimistic and lacks coherence. (more)

Slow recovery
The National Association of Manufacturers reports that the current recovery is the slowest since that of 1919, with higher costs and a strong dollar inhibiting job creation. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed up at 4.54%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.




Gold
New York (19.12): Spot gold leaped more than 7 dollars to $371.60.
The primary trend is up.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rose 11 points to close at 3178 on lower volume.



The intermediate and primary up-trends are up.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) and MACD (26,12,9) are below their signal lines; MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (21) display bearish divergences.


Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3187. Short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3187.
Long-term: Long positions if the index is above 2978 .




Gold
Gold stocks are again under the spotlight after the rise in the spot price. NCM and OXR appear strong but some of the others warrant closer scrutiny.

Croesus [CRS] was last covered on August 12, 2003.
Support has formed at 0.59; not 0.60 as plotted in the above post.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) and (21) signal bearish divergences but price is consolidating above the support level.
Relative Strength has leveled out, while MACD has crossed below its signal line but is still above zero.



There were no higher closes than the breakout at [1]: [2] formed a weak close on lower volume.
The pull-back to [3] made a false break below the support level. Since then volume has dried up while price has held above 0.59.



A break above 0.62 will be bullish; while a close below 0.59 will be bearish.
Entries should always be taken using buy-stops/sell-stops above/below the resistance/support levels.

Kingsgate [KCN] was last covered on August 18, 2003.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals strong accumulation, while the shorter, 21-day indicator shows a bearish divergence.
Relative Strength has yet to make a new 3-month high but MACD is bullish.



The daily volume chart shows a weak breakout with low volume at [1] and [2]. Price broke back below at [3] on higher volume and we may see consolidation, between 3.60 and a new 4.00 resistance level, before the stock makes further gains. 



Lihir [LHG] was last covered on July 29, 2003.
Price appears to be forming a broad stage 3 top, with a large triangle forming since the start of the year.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals distribution and MACD is weak.



On the daily chart the triangle appears to be descending, with support at 1.30 and progressively lower  highs at [1] to [3]. Note the weak closes at each of the highs as well.
Relative Strength has formed a clear descending triangle, a further bear signal. 


A break below 1.30 will be a strong bear signal, while a rise above 1.45 would be bullish.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


You have to be able to control yourself.
You can't let emotions get in the way of your mind

~ Warren Buffett.






Members with lengthy watchlists may find that the new Watchlist module produces too many sub-folders.

We plan to introduce an Advanced Feature with our next update, allowing users to adjust the length of their menus,
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