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Trading Diary
July 22, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow continues to show uncertainty, forming another inside day. The index closed up 0.7% at 9158 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 8968 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 formed an inside day, gaining 10 points to close at 988 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend has turned down. MACD shows a bearish divergence.
The primary trend is up.



The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% to close at 1706 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up. If price respects support at 1680, this will signal trend strength. 
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased further to 74.96% (July 21).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 994. Short if below 975.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 962.
Long-term: Long.


Snow optimistic
Treasury Secretary John Snow expects higher GDP growth and lower unemployment in the second half of the year.
(more)

Amazon boost
The Internet retailer reported earnings (before charges) of 10 cents a share for the second quarter, compared to forecasts of 6 cents.
(more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year notes eased slightly to 4.12%.
The intermediate trend is up; the primary trend is down.




Gold
New York (18.37): Spot gold has leveled out at $351.20.
The primary trend is up.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries fell 23 points to close at 3048 on low volume. The break below support at 3050 signals a re-test of support levels. The two equal highs over the last month are not particularly bearish in an up-trend, unless there is a fall below support at 2979.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up (marginally).

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3071; short if below 3050.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3083; short if below 2979.
Long-term: Long if above 2979.

Financial Sector
Financials-X-Property [XXJ] has weakened over the last month, with lower highs at [5] and [7]. The latest high at [7] was unable to break through resistance from the previous low [4] and the high of [1], signaling trend strength. MACD shows a bearish divergence and we are likely to see a test of support at 38.00.



ANZ Bank [ANZ] shows similar weakness. MACD signals a bearish divergence, Twiggs Money flow (21) displays a bearish peak below zero and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is falling.



National Australia Bank [NAB] appears set to re-test support at 31.00.
MACD shows a bearish divergence, while Twiggs Money Flow (21) and Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) are weak.



Westpac [WBC] is holding up better. MACD shows a bearish divergence. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) dipped below its 3-month low but has since recovered; Twiggs Money flow (21) signals accumulation.



Commonwealth [CBA] has performed relatively well, holding above the primary trendline. 
MACD is bullish; Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising; and Twiggs Money flow (21) signals accumulation.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


What man actually needs is not a tensionless state
but rather the striving and struggling for some goal worthy of him.
What he needs is not the discharge of tension at any cost,
but the call of a potential meaning waiting to be fulfilled by him.

~ Viktor Frankl: Man's Search For Meaning (1963).




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