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Trading Diary
June 25, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow closed 1.1% down at 9011 on slightly higher volume; testing the 9000 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.

The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower at 975.
The intermediate trend is up. The break of the trendline and 1000 support level signals weakness.
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite appears to be finding support at 1600, closing 0.2% lower at 1602.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is 0.76% from its peak, at 74.46% on June 24.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 992 (the day's high).
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long.

Fed cuts rates by a quarter per cent
The Federal Reserve Board cut the overnight lending rate to one per cent, the lowest level in 45 years.

New York (18.14): Spot gold is down at $US 347.40.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.

ASX Australia
Tuesday, the All Ordinaries fell sharply, breaking through support at 3050. Wednesday, the fall slowed, with the index closing 3 points lower at 3032 on slightly higher volume. If the index closes above 3050, it will complete a morning star (candlestick) reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3039 (Wednesday's high).
Intermediate: The primary trend has reversed up; Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Long-term: The primary trend reversal has confirmed the March 18 follow through signal. Long.

Chemeq [CMQ]
After completing a spike at [4] Chemeq corrected sharply to a low at [5].
There is some resistance to higher prices with [6] failing to close above the high of [5].
The subsequent correction started on thin volume at [7] before encountering buying support at [8].
Strong volume and a high close signal the likelihood of another rally.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) still signals accumulation
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line, after completing a bullish trough above zero [+].

Coles Myer [CML]
Coles continues to impress after having broken above resistance at 6.60.

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) recently made a new 3-month high; and
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals accumulation.

An up-turn above support at 6.90 will signal a fast up-trend.
A pull-back to support at 6.60 will indicate a slower, more sedate trend.

MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line, after completing a bullish trough above zero [+].
An up-turn above the zero line will be a bull signal.

A dry-up of volume and daily range (volatility) may forewarn of an up-turn.
A break below 6.60 would be bearish.

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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.

Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs

Some in clandestine companies combine;
Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line;
With air and empty names beguile the town,
And raise new credits first, then cry 'em down;
Divide the empty nothing into shares,
And set the crowd together by the ears.

~ Daniel Defoe (1660 - 1731).


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