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Trading Diary
June 20, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed a weak close at 9201 on strong volume; and we may see a re-test of the new 9000 support level. The index is up 0.9% on last week's close.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.




The S&P 500 also closed weakly, up 1 point at 996, and below the symbolic 1000 resistance level. The index is up 0.7% on last week.
The intermediate trend is up. The broken trendline and closes below the support level indicate weakness.
The primary trend is up, with the index having broken above 950.




The Nasdaq Composite closed down at 1645 on encouragingly lower volume; still up 1.2% on last week.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator gained 1.5% in the last week, to reach 75.22% on June 20.


Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 1002.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1002.
Long-term: Long above 1002.




Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed slightly down on last week at $US 356.10.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke above 3050, signaling the start of a primary up-trend, but has since lost momentum and appears headed for a re-test of the new support level. The index closed the week almost unchanged at 3055.
The intermediate trend is up. The trendline has been broken but on encouragingly lower volume.
The primary trend has started an up-trend.




The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line and has completed a bullish trough above zero; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Longs if the All Ords is above 3050.
Intermediate: Long if the All Ords is above 3050. The primary trend has turned upwards.
Long-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3050. The primary trend reversal has confirmed the follow through bull signal from March 18.


Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) is up at 78 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • REITs (10)
  • Banks (7)
  • Diversified Financial (5)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (5)
  • Steel (3)
  • Construction Materials (3)
  • Agricultural Products (3)


Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Computershare - CPU
  • Chemeq - CMQ
  • Kingsgate - KCN
  • Bank of Queensland - BOQ
  • Caltex - CTX
  • Harvey Norman - HVN


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
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Colin Twiggs


To understand others is to be knowledgeable;
To understand yourself is to be wise;
To conquer others is to have strength;
To conquer yourself is to be strong.
To know when you have enough is to be rich.

- Lao Tse.



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