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Trading Diary
June 18, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow retreated 0.3% to 9293 on average volume, signaling continued uncertainty.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.



The S&P 500 lost 1 point to close at 1010.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied 0.5% to close at 1677, testing the recent high.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 75.04% on June 17.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 1000.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long - the S&P 500 primary trend has turned upwards after two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal.


Eastman Kodak
The photographic film-maker halved its' second-quarter earnings forecasts, blaming SARS for slow sales in Asia. (more)




Gold
New York (17.46): Spot gold eased to $US 357.20.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries retreated 19 points to close at 3058 on lower volume. The index appears headed for a re-test of support at 3050.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation, having completed two bullish troughs above zero.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Intermediate: The primary trend has reversed up; Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Long-term: The primary trend reversal has confirmed the March 18 follow through signal. Long if the All Ords is above 3050.


Bank of Queensland [BOQ]
BOQ is in a fast upward trend but has broken the intermediate trendline - twice in the past few days.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day and 21-day) is neutral; MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has declined from its peak at the start of June.



The trendline break is in the form of a flag pattern, normally a continuation signal.
Volume has dried up on the latest down-swing, signaling the likelihood of an upward breakout.

A break above the upper border of the flag will be a bullish signal; and may present short-term traders an opportunity to increase their long position.
A break below the lower border of the flag will be bearish and may signal a return to the primary trendline.


Caltex [CTX]
Caltex is consolidating after a fast rally, from [b].
The previous two rallies were both followed by periods of sideways consolidation, rather than a sharp correction back to the primary trendline.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day and 21-day) signal strong accumulation; MACD (26,12,9) has declined but is still above zero.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has declined from its May peak.



Equivolume indicates heavy resistance at 2.80 to 2.85 with an over-square bar at [4].
Resistance continues with the broad bar at [6].



Resistance may not continue for the same length of time as the earlier consolidation periods; we are now in a bull market. 
A rise above 2.85 will be a strong bull signal.
A fall below 2.50 will be bearish, signaling a re-test of support at the primary trendline.


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
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on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.

~ General George S. Patton.


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