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Trading Diary
March 26, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed a further inside day, signaling uncertainty, and closed down 0.6% at 8229 on lower volume. Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid so long as the index holds above 7763. 
The intermediate cycle is down, although the trendline has been broken.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite also formed an inside day, down 4 points at 1387.
The intermediate trend is down, despite the large correction.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 mimicked the Dow, down 0.5% at 869 on an inside day.
The intermediate trend is down, but the trendline has been broken.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator remains at 36% (March 25).


Iraq
A protracted conflict could lead to a further contraction of the US economy: the much-feared "double dip". (more)




Gold
New York (16.45): Spot gold is up 190 cents at $US 330.10.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke through resistance, closing up 36 points at 2858. This confirms that the intermediate trend is now up. The weak counter-trend signals that the up-trend is strong, but volume has not increased on the latest rally.
The primary trend is down.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has whipsawed back above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is rising.





Kingsgate [KCN]
Last covered on January 23, 2003.
The Thai gold miner has pulled back from the double top at [g] and [i] and is now testing the primary supporting trendline.

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) trends upwards; MACD is negative; Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal strong accumulation.
Spot gold is still above its long-term supporting trendline (5-year chart).





The equivolume chart shows the double top at [g] and [i] was followed by a correction back to support above 3.40. Three bars with long shadows, the last at [q], show buyers entering the market.





A break above the recent high at [o], accompanied by a break of the downward trendline, will signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Look for volume confirmation.
A break below 3.40 would be bearish.


Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Short-term: Long
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


The generals have a saying:
"Rather than make the first move
it is better to wait and see.
Rather than advance an inch
it is better to retreat a yard."

This is called
going forward without advancing,
pushing back without using weapons.

There is no greater misfortune
than underestimating your enemy.
Underestimating your enemy
means thinking that he is evil.
Thus you destroy your three treasures
and become an enemy yourself.

When two great forces oppose each other,
the victory will go
to the one that knows how to yield.

- Lao Tse.







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