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Trading Diary
November 18, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




Understanding the Trading Diary provides further guidance.

USA
The Dow retreated 1% on low volume. A break below 8200 will signal a secondary cycle down-trend.
The primary trend will reverse (up) if the index rises above 9130.

The Nasdaq Composite Index again tested resistance at 1426 before closing 1.2% down at 1393.
The primary trend will reverse (up) if the index breaks above 1426.

The S&P 500 imitated the Dow, closing 9 points down at 900.
The primary trend will complete a double bottom reversal if it rises above 965.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator signals a bull alert at 40% (November 15).


Iraq
Weapons inspectors arrive in Baghdad. The crunch comes on December 8, when Iraq has to hand over a declaration of its weapons program. (more)



Gold
New York: Spot gold is down 110 cents at $US 319.20.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries took a breather, closing down 4 points at 2961 on lower volume.
The primary trend will reverse if the index rises above 3150.
The Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line, MACD (26,12,9) is below, while Twiggs money flow signals distribution.





Adelaide Brighton Cement [ABC]
Last covered on October 17.
ABC has completed an inverted head and shoulders on the monthly chart: the left shoulder at [1], the head in the form of a triangle at [2] to [3], the right shoulder at [4], and the break through the neckline at [5]. The target for the pattern is 1.67 ( 1.00 + 1.00 - 0.33). Relative strength (price ratio: xao) started to rise [a] at the breakout from the bottom triangle at [3] and was confirmed when the next trough [b] respected support. The indicator then moved sideways for an extended period, forming equal highs at [c] and [d], before again breaking out at [e] with confirmation at [f].




The weekly chart displays a cup and handle pattern, with the cup from [1] to [2] and the handle from [2] to [3]. MACD displays a bullish divergence at [d], followed by an equal high at [2] before the breakout at [3].





Twiggs money flow shows strong accumulation since July, barely crossing below zero [+].




The equivolume chart reflects the handle from the cup and handle pattern. At [1] higher prices were rejected with the broad bar showing increased volume and the long upper shadow signaling that sellers had wrested control away from buyers. [2] and [3] reflect strong buying support at 0.86. The breakout from [4] is confirmed by strong volume. The entry point was at 0.99 on completion of the handle (avoid round numbers) with a stop-loss at 0.88, below the recent low.





The long shadow at [6] warned of the pull-back at [7] to [8]. A conservative entry point could have been made on day [9] when price gapped above the high of [8], respecting the 1.00 support level. The counter-trend at [10] was short and on light volume. Accumulation is signaled at [11] with over-square bars. The latest correction at [12] is on higher volume.

A rise above 1.15 will be bullish, while a pull-back which respects the 1.15 support level will be a strong bull signal. A break below 1.08 will be bearish and may signal a re-test of support at 1.00.




Short-term: Avoid new entries: The Slow Stochastic and MACD are on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries. Use stop losses to protect yourself against a sudden reversal.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


I know of no more encouraging fact
than the unquestionable ability of man
to elevate his life by conscious endeavor.

- Henry David Thoreau






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