July 10, 2002
These extracts from my daily
trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in
short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
The Dow fell more than 3% to close at 8813 on
strong volume, below the 9000 support level.
This is a
bear market, with primary and secondary cycles trending
The Nasdaq Composite fell a further 2.5% to
close at 1346, below September 2001 levels.
The primary and secondary cycles are in a down-trend.
The S&P 500 lost 32 points to close at
920, the lowest level since January '98.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.
Safe havens clobbered
stocks, especially drug companies, were sold down sharply. New
entries to the reshuffled S&P 500 (EBay, Goldman Sachs, UPS
and Prudential) are amongst the few gainers.
THe US Attorney's office has begun criminal investigations into
accounting at Qwest Communications, the long distance telephone
Gold and silver decline against a more
stable dollar, August gold futures close at $US 315.10.
The All Ordinaries closed 30 points down at 3175 on average
volume. It now appears unlikely that the double-bottom
pattern will reach its target.
The primary cycle is in a bear trend, secondary
cycle has completed a reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are above their
Exponentially-smoothed Money Flow has retreated to negative
CSR makes US acquisition [CSR]
CSR pays $US 540 million for US-based aggregate company Kiewit
CSR has been in a stage 3 top since September last year. Relative
Strength (price ratio: xao) and exponentially-smoothed Money Flow
are improving, while MACD confirms the up-trend (higher low,
higher high) on the price chart.
Peplin Biotech receive a US patent for their Tumor Necrosis
Factor (TNF) antibodies. (more)
Relative Strength (price
ratio: xao) and MACD are improving, while exponentially-smoothed
Money Flow has swung to accumulation.
BBG has entered a stage 3 top in the form of a declining wedge.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has failed to make further
progress since February and MACD is declining, but
exponentially-smoothed Money Flow signals accumulation.
Short-term: The Slow Stochastic and MACD are above their
respective signal lines. Exercise extreme caution because of
the weakness in US markets.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500
Thought for the Day:
When the going gets tough, the tough go
shopping. - Unknown.
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