July 2, 2002
These extracts from my daily
trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in
short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
The Dow closed down more than 1% at 9007 on
above-average volume, holding just above the 9000 support
This is a
bear market, with primary and secondary
cycles trending down.
The Nasdaq Composite crashed through the 1400
support level from September last year, closing 3.3% down at
The primary and secondary cycles are in a down-trend.
The S&P 500 closed down 20 points at 948,
below the 960 support level from September 2001.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.
This is not a market bottom
Stocks have further to fall says Paul F Desmond of Lowry's
Reports, a bear market specialist. (more)
Dealers see little upside potential in the short-term, with
resistance at $US 316.00 and at $318.25 per ounce. (more)
Chip stocks are suffering from soft demand for personal
computers and mobile phones. (more)
The All Ordinaries closed down 17 points at 3159 on average
Primary and secondary cycles are in a bear trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line.
Chaikin Money Flow is below zero, signaling distribution. An
exponentially-smoothed money flow is depicted below.
Analysts expect disappointing half-year results. (more)
MACD may show a bullish divergence but Relative Strength (price
ratio: xao) and exponentially-smoothed Money
Flow are weak.
National Foods [NFD]
The merger of the consumer products divisions
of Bonlac and Fonterra is just one step in a long-awaited
industry rationalization. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD
are bullish while exponentially-smoothed Money Flow is
Australian Gas Light [AGL]
AGL completes the purchase of Pulse Energy
for $880 million. (more)
ALS has been wedging up over the past few weeks, testing
resistance at $3.90. The stock still has to break further
resistance at $4.00. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and
exponentially-smoothed Money Flow are strong, while MACD is
Short-term: Avoid long and short - the
Slow Stochastic is above its signal line.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to
signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the
Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
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