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Dow breaks support

By Colin Twiggs
January 21st, 2015 11:30 a.m. AEDT (7:30 p.m. EST)

Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.

My newsletters on December 10th and January 14th warned of the approaching storm across global markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now broken primary support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, indicating selling pressure, strengthens the warning. Target for the decline is 14000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000

S&P 500 breach of primary support at 1870 confirms the Dow signal. The long tail on the latest candle indicates the continued presence of buyers (highlighted by rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow). Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect is likely and follow-through below 1850 would be the final nail in the coffin. The medium-term target is 1700* but long-term, expect a test of 1500.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1900 - ( 2100 - 1900 ) = 1700

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) testing 30 suggests elevated risk.

S&P 500 VIX

Gold and Treasury Yields

Bonds have benefited from the flight to safety, with 10-year Treasury Yields closing below 2.0%. Follow-through below 1.90% would suggest a test of the 2015 low at 1.65%.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Gold likewise rallied to $1100 per ounce. But falling oil prices and low inflation are likely to undermine any long-term demand for gold as a store of value.

S&P 500 VIX

We may learn wisdom by three methods: first, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the most bitter.

~ The Analects of Confucius.

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