Long-tailed candles
By Colin Twiggs
May 18th, 2015 3:00 p.m. AET (01:00 a.m. EDT)
Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.
Stocks are recovering from their recent soft patch and breakout above resistance is likely, signaling further gains.
North American Stocks
The S&P 500 is testing medium-term resistance at 2120. Breakout would signal an advance to 2200*. Three weekly candles with long tails reflect medium-term buying pressure, while a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough high above zero indicates long-term pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level at 2100 would further strengthen the bull signal.
* Target calculation: 2120 + ( 2120 - 2040 ) = 2200
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 12 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 18300. Buying pressure appears similar to the S&P 500 and breakout would offer a target of 19000*.
* Target calculation: 18300 + ( 18300 - 17600 ) = 19000
Canada's TSX 60 found support at 870. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero continues to indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above 900 would offer a long-term target of 1000*.
* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 - 800 ) = 1000
Europe
Germany's DAX encountered support above 11000. Penetration of the descending trendline would indicate the correction is over and follow-through above 12000 would suggest a primary advance. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of continued selling pressure and a further test of 11000, but respect of support remains likely and would provide a solid base for further advances.
The Footsie also displays long tails, suggesting medium-term buying support, but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates continued selling pressure. Breach of 6900 would warn of a correction to 6700, but further losses are unlikely at present. Recovery above 7100 would confirm the long-term breakout, offering a target of 8000*.
* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 8000
Asia
The Shanghai Composite is consolidating between 4000 and 4500. Breach of either of these levels would signal future direction. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, favoring the downside.
* Target calculation: 3500 + ( 3500 - 2500 ) = 4500
Short retracement on Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is a bullish sign. Breakout above 20000 would offer a target of 22000*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term selling pressure; recovery above the descending trendline would be a bullish sign.
* Target calculation: 20000 + ( 20000 - 18000 ) = 22000
India's Sensex found support between 26500 and 27000. Long tails suggest medium-term buying pressure. Recovery above 28000 and the descending trendline would suggest another attempt at 30000. But 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains below zero, warning of (long-term) selling pressure. Another peak below zero would warn of breach of primary support and a reversal.
Australia
ASX 200 support at 5750, 5650 or 5550: which is most relevant? Judging by some of the questions received, I succeeded in confusing a number of readers. Here is a brief summary:
- 5750 acted as medium-term support until the beginning of May, when breach of 5750 and the rising trendline warned of a correction.
- 5750 transformed into medium-term resistance and penetration would suggest the correction is over.
- There is a strong band of support between the two recent (2014) highs of 5650 and 5550.
- Breach of this band (i.e. below 5550) would indicate a test of primary support at 5120.
- Respect (i.e. 5550 intact) would provide a solid base for a rally and a further (primary) advance if resistance at 6000 is broken.
Mild decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure — not a reversal. Recovery above 5750 remains more likely than breach of 5550.
* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 - 5750 ) = 6250
I think I've done the best I could have done. But I keep wanting to play better, go further. There are so many sounds I still want to make, so many things I haven't yet done. When I was younger I thought maybe I'd reached that peak. But I'm 86 now, and if I make it through to next month, I'll be 87. And now I know it can never be perfect, it can never be exactly what it should be, so you got to keep going further, getting better.
~ Riley (B.B.) King
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