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Gold strengthens on Dollar weakness

By Colin Twiggs
July 10th, 2014 12:30 a.m. EDT (2:30 p.m. AEST)

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  • Treasury yields weaken
  • The Dollar continues to test long-term support
  • Gold is strengthening

Interest Rates and the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is again testing support at 2.50 percent. Failure would indicate a decline to 2.00 percent. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. Market expectations favor low interest rates and 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Recovery above 2.65 is less likely, but would suggest the correction is over, offering a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 - ( 3.00 - 2.50 ) = 2.00

The Dollar Index tests short-term support at 80.00. Respect of zero by 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of continuation of the primary down-trend. Breach of 80.00 would indicate a test of primary support at 79.00. Recovery above 80.50 is unlikely at present, but would suggest an advance to 81.50.

Dollar Index

Gold

Low interest rates and higher inflation expectations favor a stronger gold price and a weaker Dollar. Gold is consolidating in a narrow band below medium-term resistance at $1325/$1330, suggesting continuation of the rally. Breakout would signal a test of $1400. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero hints at a primary up-trend; breakout above $1400 would confirm. Retreat below $1300 is unlikely, but would test support at $1240.

Spot Gold

Men think that acting unjustly is in their power and therefore that being just is easy. But to act justly a certain state of character, which is not in our power, is necessary and not always easy to find.

~ Aristotle

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