Asia-Pacific: ASX 200 selling pressure
By Colin Twiggs
June 30th, 2014 4:00 a.m. EDT (6:00 p.m. AEST)
Dow Jones Shanghai Index rallied Monday, headed for another test of resistance at 270/272. Momentum is rising, but only recovery above 282/284 (with TMO above zero) would signal a trend change. Further consolidation is more likely, ranging between 258 and 284. Downward breakout, unlikely at present, would warn of a decline to 240*.
* Target calculation: 260 - ( 280 - 260 ) = 240
Japan's Nikkei 225 retraced to test its new support level around 15000. Respect would confirm a a rally to 16000. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 14800 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 14000.
* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 - 14000 ) = 18000
India's Sensex is far stronger — retracing to test its new support level at 25000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support would warn of a correction to 24000. But the primary trend is upward and recovery above 25500 would signal another advance.
* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 - 16000 ) = 26000
The ASX 200 is once again testing support at 5380/5400. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Correction to 5300 is likely. The primary trend remains upward and this should prove a good entry point for long-term investors. Recovery above 5470 is unlikely at present, but would signal another primary advance.
* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 - 5400 ) = 5700
ASX 200 VIX remains low, indicative of a bull market.
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