Asia recovery helps ASX 200
By Colin Twiggs
September 25th, 2013 3:00 a.m. EDT (5:00 p.m. AET)
China's Shanghai Composite Index ran into resistance at 2250 and is likely to retrace to support at 2100. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 2100 would be bullish, while recovery above 2250 would penetrate the descending trendline, suggesting that the primary down-trend is reversing. A primary up-trend would signal increased demand for resources and give a significant boost to the ASX. Failure of 2100 is unlikely, but would indicate a test of primary support at 1950.
Japan's Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 15000. Breakout would signal an advance to 17500*. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of a reversal. Penetration of the rising trendline would also suggest the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Failure of support at 13200 remains unlikely, but would signal a reversal.
* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 - 12500 ) = 17500
India's Sensex retreated below resistance at 20500. Tall shadows and long tails on the weekly chart indicate excessive volatility. Reversal below last week's low at 19500 would warn of another down-swing. Breach of the rising trendline would strengthen the reversal warning. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 18500 - ( 20500 - 18500 ) = 16500
ASX 200 recovery above the May high of 5250 indicates a primary advance. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Long-term target for an advance would be 5850*.
* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 - 4650 ) = 5850
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.
~ Marcus Aurelius (hat tip to Barry Ritholz)