Global markets bearish but ASX, India find support
By Colin Twiggs
September 3rd, 2013 2:30 a.m. EDT (4:30 p.m. AET)
US markets were closed Monday for Labor Day. The S&P 500 ended last week testing its rising trendline and support at 1630. Breach would reinforce the bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating a test of primary support at 1560. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at present, but would warn the correction is ending. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of 1400*.
* Target calculation: 1550 - ( 1700 - 1550 ) = 1400
VIX below 20, however, suggests a bull market.
The FTSE 100 closed above initial resistance at 6500. Follow-through would suggest the correction is over and another attempt at 6750 likely. Strong bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of selling pressure and breakout above 6750 is unlikely. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a test of primary support at 6000.
Germany's DAX encountered stubborn resistance at 8500. Reversal below 8000 would test primary support at 7600, while breakout above 8500 would offer a target of 9000*.
* Target calculation: 8400 + ( 8400 - 7800 ) = 9000
Japan's Nikkei 225 recovered above 13500 and follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the correction is over and another test of resistance at 15000 is likely. Reversal below 13200, however, would indicate a test of primary support at 12500. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure.
China's Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2100/2120. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is ending.
India's Sensex encountered strong support at 18000/18500, evidenced by the long tails on the weekly candles and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Expect another test of resistance at 20500. Follow-through above 19000 would strengthen the signal.
The ASX 200 is headed for a test of 5250 after breaking resistance at 5150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would be a welcome sign, suggesting another primary advance, but respect of resistance and a lower peak on Twiggs Money Flow would warn of a reversal.
* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 - 4750 ) = 5750
If you can't measure it, you probably can't manage it..... Things you measure tend to improve.
~ Ed Seykota