Crude oil sinks hope of early recovery
By Colin Twiggs
August 10th, 2011 6:00 a.m. ET (8:00 p:m AET)
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Today's bounce on world markets caused a rally of Brent Crude on the hourly chart, testing the former primary support level at $105/barrel. Institutional buying of stocks does not alter the fundamentals: high crude oil prices will cause a double-dip recession. No action by the Fed can change this. Every crude oil spike in the last 50 years has been followed by a recession.
* Target calculation: 105 - ( 120 - 105 ) = 90
Retreat below resistance at $105 would confirm that Brent Crude has joined Light (WTI) Crude in a primary down-trend. Target for the down-swing is $90*.
We need a major re-adjustment of crude oil prices to set the global economy on a sound footing.
China's growth over the past couple of decades was based on large increases in government-directed investment. As a consequence, it had to run large trade surpluses to absorb the resulting excess capacity in manufacturingŅ. This can't continue.
~ By Michael Pettis - WSJ.com
As Japan and other fast-growing economies in the past have discovered, continued infrastructure spending grows increasingly wasteful and fails to deliver further growth. Subsidizing business through artificially low interest rates may encourage private investment as an alternative, but leads to:
- bloated, inefficient corporations;
- high inflation; and
- massive speculative bubbles.
Options are narrowing and a shift to private consumption as the main driver of future growth is not without its risks:
- low interest rates and high inflation are eroding private savings;
- higher interest rates, however, would unmask business inefficiencies and collapse the speculative property bubble;
- higher wages, on the other hand, will fuel inflation.
This Chinese puzzle may not be easy to solve.