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Asia joins US stampede

By Colin Twiggs
August 8th, 2011 4:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET)

These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.


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US Stampede

A friend who holds a number of stocks asked on the weekend if they are likely to fall any further. My answer was that holding onto stocks in this market is like standing in front of a stampeding herd. There may be a short retracement early in the week, but strong selling is expected to overwhelm support. On August 3rd I gave the probability of a down-turn as 75 percent. The odds are now about as close to 100 percent as you will ever get.

S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 followed through below support at 1250, confirming the primary down-trend. Friday's brief rally was swamped by further sell orders. The herd has started to move. We are beyond the tipping point.

* Target calculation: 1260 - ( 1360 - 1260 ) = 1160

United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 continued on its downward path, approaching its calculated target at 5100*. Expect some retracement this week, but I would not place much reliance on support at 5100 and suspect that we will see a test of the June 2010 low at 4800.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5600 - ( 6600 - 5600 ) = 5100

China

The Shanghai Composite Index followed through below 2620 Monday, after breaking primary support at 2650 Friday, to confirm a primary down-trend. The index fell to 2500 before recovering weakly to 2527 by the close. HongKong fared slightly better, with the Hang Seng Index initially falling to 20000 but recovering to test 20500 by the close. Target for the down-swing is the 2010 low of 19000*.

* Target calculation: 22000 - ( 25000 - 22000 ) = 19000

Hang Seng Index Hongkong

* Target calculation: 445 – ( 510 – 445 ) = 380

ASX Trampled

The Australian ASX 200 was trampled Monday by the stampeding herd, reaching its medium-term target of 4000* in 4 days. There are no signs of a retracement so far. This could even re-test the 2009 low of 3200 in the next few weeks.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 4500 - ( 5000 - 4500 ) = 4000



What I've seen is a real divergence in world views between the President and his party and where most of us conservatives are....... If you hear them speak its always about everyone must pay their fair share and I think the difference is we believe everyone should have a fair shot. It really is a difference between whether you think government is in place to ensure equal outcomes or whether we should as elected officials try to promote the situation where everyone has equal opportunity to go and earn the outcome.

~ House majority leader Eric Cantor

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