Gold Up-Trend Continues
By Colin Twiggs
February 26, 2009 2:00 a.m. ET (6:00 p.m. AET)
Spot gold is retracing after respecting resistance at $1000 indicating an orderly up-trend rather than panic buying — and is expected to test the band of support between $900 and $930. Respect of support is likely and would signal another test of $1000. Failure would penetrate the rising trendline, warning of a down-swing to test $700. In the longer term, breakout above $1000 would offer a target of $1200; calculated as 900 + ( 1000 - 700 ).
West Texas Crude broke short-term resistance at $40 per barrel and is headed for a test of primary resistance at $50. Gasoline stocks are falling, but crude inventories are at their highest level since July 2007 (WSJ) — making it unlikely that the primary trend will reverse anytime soon. In the long term, reversal below $33 would warn of a down-swing to test the 2003 low of $20. The target is calculated as 35 - (50 - 35).
...For the record, I favor nationalization and swift privatization. We cannot afford a repeat of Japan's zombie banks.
~ John Mauldin