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Trading Diary
November 27, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.




USA

The Dow Industrial Average is consolidating in a narrow band below resistance at 10600. A breakout above 10600 would be bullish, while a fall below 10450 would signal that a test of support at 10000 is likely.
Low volumes are due to the Thanksgiving weekend.




A sustained breakout (not just a false break) above 10600 would signal that a test of 11000 is likely. A fall below 10000 would be a long-term bear signal.
Twiggs Money Flow signals strong accumulation.




The Nasdaq Composite successfully tested the new support level at 2050 and may now rally to test resistance at 2150. This could well be followed by another test of 2150 before a breakout. The primary trend is up.
Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal accumulation, rising well above its' signal line.





The S&P 500 has successfully tested the new support level at 1150/1160, signaling a strong up-trend. The projected target for the recently completed broadening wedge pattern is 1240: 1140 + ( 1160 - 1060).
Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal strong accumulation.





The primary trend is up. With no major resistance levels overhead we can expect good gains.








Treasury yields

The yield on 10-year treasury notes is again threatening to break out from the double bottom pattern at [1] and [2]. The short pull-back is a "bullish" sign. The breakout target is 4.50%: 4.25 + (4.25 - 4.00).

The yield differential (10-year T-notes minus 13-week T-bills) is at 2.1%. 
Differentials below 1.0% are bearish.






Gold

New York: Spot gold last traded at $451.70 after being closed Thursday and most of Friday due to Thanksgiving. On the 10-year chart we can see major support at $420, while resistance is likely to form at 500.





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ASX Australia

The ASX 200 rallied after a short correction back to 3830 (xao: 3850). Strong blue candles, large volume and penetration of resistance at 3880 (xao: 3900) all signal that buyers are back in control. Expect a test of the new support level in the week ahead.

I find that the All Ords tends to form support and resistance at round numbers like 3900 and 3850, whereas the ASX 200 does not.




Twiggs Money Flow is rising steeply, signaling accumulation.
The primary up-trend is strong. The latest rally is unusually steep and at some stage (perhaps 4000) increased profit-taking will force a correction. The first major support level is at 3500 (xao: 3450): the highs of 2002.




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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
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Colin Twiggs


As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know we don't know.

~ Donald H Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defence.




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