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Trading Diary
February 24, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA (23rd)
The Dow Industrial Average again tested support at 10600 before
closing at 10609. The weak close and slightly higher volume
signal some buying support.
A fall below the January 29 low of 10417 would signal a re-test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. Resistance is at 11300 to 11350. A fall below support at 9600 would indicate the start of a down-trend.
A fall below the January 29 low of 10417 would signal a re-test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. Resistance is at 11300 to 11350. A fall below support at 9600 would indicate the start of a down-trend.
The Nasdaq Composite displays a strong downward bar, closing at
2007 after testing support at 2000. The strong close and higher
volume signal selling pressure, indicating that the support level
may be under threat.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 would signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 would signal reversal.
The S&P 500 closed lower at 1141. The weak close and lower
volume signal the absence of selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A rise above 1155 would be bullish. A fall below support at 1122 would signal a down-trend.
The primary trend is up. Expect strong support at 1000. A fall below 960 would signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A rise above 1155 would be bullish. A fall below support at 1122 would signal a down-trend.
The primary trend is up. Expect strong support at 1000. A fall below 960 would signal reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator retreated
to 85.06%.
Gold
New York (Feb 24 02:06): Spot gold recovered to $400.70.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below $370 would signal reversal.
New York (Feb 24 02:06): Spot gold recovered to $400.70.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below $370 would signal reversal.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries penetrated support at 3350,
closing at 3341; a signal that the intermediate up-trend has
slowed. Volume is reasonable but does not show real "fear" - like
the break below 3320 on January 28. A rise above today's high
would still be bullish. A fall below last Monday's low of 3333
would be bearish.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below
support at 3320 would be bearish.
The primary trend is up. Resistance is at the 2001/2002 highs of 3425 and 3440. Support is at 3160.
The primary trend is up. Resistance is at the 2001/2002 highs of 3425 and 3440. Support is at 3160.
Stock Screening - Stage 1
Breakouts
Correction to yesterday's Diary:
Correction to yesterday's Diary:
-
To eliminate stocks already in strong
trending moves:
enter 25 as the Maximum % Move for 1, 3 and 6 months.
Directional Movement
Welles Wilder's Directional Movement system measures the ability of buyers and sellers to move price above or below the previous day's trading range. There are 3 lines:
Welles Wilder's Directional Movement system measures the ability of buyers and sellers to move price above or below the previous day's trading range. There are 3 lines:
- The Positive Direction Indicator (+DI) summarizes upward trend movement;
- The Negative Direction Indicator (-DI) summarizes downward trend movement; and
- The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) indicates whether the market is trending or ranging.
In screening for Stage 1 breakouts, the most
important line is the ADX. Low levels, below 20 or 25, indicate a
ranging market, while high levels signal a strong trend.
Our screen will therefore include:
Our screen will therefore include:
- Directional Movement ADX Crossover: crosses above 25 within the last 5 days;
- % Price Move: enter 25 as the Maximum for 1, 3 and 6 months.
Again, this is an imperfect screen, but it does
turn up some interesting stocks.
What we really need is an additional filter where we can set the minimum time that ADX must be below 25 (to filter out stocks where ADX whipsaws above and below 25). This is on our list for the planned upgrade of the stock screens.
What we really need is an additional filter where we can set the minimum time that ADX must be below 25 (to filter out stocks where ADX whipsaws above and below 25). This is on our list for the planned upgrade of the stock screens.
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
Lives of great men all remind us
We can make our lives sublime,
And, departing, leave behind us
Footprints on the sands of time.
~ Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
(1807 - 1882).
We can make our lives sublime,
And, departing, leave behind us
Footprints on the sands of time.
~ Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
(1807 - 1882).
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