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Trading Diary
February 5, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average continues to consolidate, forming an inside day with a slightly higher close, at 10495, on low volume. 
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below last Thursday's low of 10417 would signal reversal to a down-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would indicate reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite paused above support at 2000, after yesterday's sharp downward move. The inside day closed up at 2019 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 would signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 continues to trade in a narrow range, forming an inside day with a higher close at 1128 on lower volume. 
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below last Thursday's low of 1122 would signal reversal to a down-trend.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155. Bearish below 1122.

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 would signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased slightly to 84.11%.


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.174%.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% would signal reversal.





Gold
New York (21.19): Spot gold fell sharply to $396.20.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below $370 would signal reversal.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries made a false break below support at 3271 before closing back within the consolidation range, at 3275 on average volume. 
A fall below 3271 would signal an intermediate down-trend, with a likely test of support at 3160.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3271 (Thursday's low).



Twiggs Money Flow (100) has penetrated its 3-month support level; a further bearish sign.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 (the October 1 low) would signal reversal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.


Biotechnology:

CSL Limited [CSL]
Last covered on December 8, 2003.
CSL formed a broad base over the last year, following a sharp stage 4 down-trend. Price is forming higher lows; a bullish sign.
Twiggs Money Flow displays a similar pattern, threatening to cross above zero.



Relative Strength displays a similar bullish pattern.
It may be prudent to wait for a pull-back that respects the new support level at 18.00; especially as volume on the latest rally is fairly thin.
A close below support at 15.70, on the other hand, would be bearish. 



Chemeq [CMQ]
Last covered October 21, 2003.
Chemeq has consolidated between 5.00 and 6.00 since the blow-off spike in June 2003. Twiggs Money Flow has declined but is still impressive, not having fallen below zero since 2001. This stock may well have further upside and should be monitored closely.
A break above 6.00 would be bullish; below 5.00, bearish.



Novogen [NRT]
Last covered December 10, 2003. NRT has struggled to make further gains after the blow-off spike in November 2003 and is now threatening to reverse into a down-trend. Twiggs Money Flow displays a bearish divergence.



The blow-off spike at [1] was followed by a failed attempt to make a new high, at [2]. Equal highs in a down-trend, at [a] and [b], are a further bearish sign. Not quite a classic double top, but a fall below support at 6.15 will be a strong bear signal.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has broken below the 1-month support level at [x] and is threatening the 3-month level. A peak that forms below resistance at 30% would add further confirmation of the bear signal. 



Peptech [PTD]
Last covered November 19, 2003.
Peptech encountered strong resistance at 2.00. Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution. 
Support is at 1.00.



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Colin Twiggs


If you are not bright, you've got to be methodical.

~ Robert Sachs.





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