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Trading Diary
February 4, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average continues to consolidate, displaying another narrow trading range. The index closed lower at 10470 on increased volume.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below Thursday's low of 10417 would signal reversal to a down-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite gapped downwards to close sharply lower at 2014 on large volume. 
The intermediate trend has reversed downwards. Initial support is at 2000.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 continues to consolidate, closing down at 1126 on strong volume. 
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 1122 (Thursday's low) would signal reversal to a down-trend.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155. Bearish below 1122.

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155. Bearish below 960.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000. Bearish below 960.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is down at 84.00%, more than 2.5% below the peak.


Service sector up
The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped to 65.7, from 58 in December.
(more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to close at 4.124%, above preliminary support at 4.07%.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% would signal reversal.





Gold
New York (22.15): Spot gold recovered to $400.50.
The intermediate trend is down. Support is at 400.
The primary trend is up.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed almost unchanged at 3279 on average volume. The inside day continues the bearish consolidation below resistance. 
A fall below 3271 would signal an intermediate down-trend, with a likely test of support at 3160.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3271 (Thursday's low).



Twiggs Money Flow (100) has penetrated its 3-month support level; a further bearish sign.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3160 (the October 1 low) would signal reversal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.


Sigma [SIG]
Last covered on August 6, 2003.
SIG has been in a strong stage 2 up-trend for the past 3 years. Twiggs Money Flow displays an awe-inspiring accumulation signal over the entire period, never once crossing below zero. 
We now see bearish signs appearing, with a false break above the previous high on the price chart, and a bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow. These are just warning signs at this stage, but a break below 6.00 would add strong confirmation, especially if accompanied by a similar reversal on the Relative Strength chart.



Sonic Healthcare [SHL]
Last covered September 11, 2003.
Another Health Care Distributor, SHL, is in a creeping up-trend after a lengthy consolidation between 6.50 and 7.00. Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation. Creeping trends can either accelerate into a fast trend, with no overlap between troughs and previous peaks, or reverse into a down-trend; so they should be monitored closely.



Gribbles Group [GGL]
Last covered October 22, 2003. Gribbles is in a stage 1 base. Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal distribution.



Mia Group [MIA]
Last covered September 11, 2003.
The last of the four ASX 200 Health Care Distributors, MIA has formed a stage 1 base in the shape of a bullish ascending triangle. Whilst Twiggs Money Flow may be falling, the stock should be monitored for accumulation signals. A break above resistance at 0.80 would be a bullish sign, especially if echoed on the Relative Strength chart.



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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
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on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



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Colin Twiggs


The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do.
The hard part is doing it.

~ Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkoff





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