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Trading Diary
January 28, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average fell 1.3% to close at 10468 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up. A trend reversal is likely to result in a re-test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal a trend reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.8% to close at 2077, below the first support level. Large volume and a strong close confirm seller commitment. Unless buyers reappear tomorrow, there could be a sharp fall to test support levels. 
The intermediate trend is uncertain.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 dropped sharply to close at 1128 on strong volume. 
The intermediate trend is up but the trendline has been broken; a bearish sign.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1155. Bearish below 1136.

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1155.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator fell 0.65 to 85.99%.


Fed eases its foot off the gas
The Federal Reserve Board drops its commitment to hold rates steady "for a considerable period".
(more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes tested support before rallying strongly to close at 4.195%.
The intermediate trend is up and appears headed for a re-test of resistance at 4.4% to 4.5%.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% would signal reversal.





Gold
New York (23.10): Spot gold tested 415 before falling back to $409.10.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.




Australia
The All Ordinaries opening prices for the last two days have been corrected as below. Please take this into account when analyzing ASX indexes.

The All Ordinaries fell sharply to close at 3292, roughly at the intermediate support level. Large volume and a strong close indicate sustained selling pressure. A follow-through (below 3292) tomorrow will signal a re-test of support at 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is headed for a test of the 3-month support level. 
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 3160 would signal reversal.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3292.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.



National Australia Bank [NAB]
Last covered on January 27, 2004
The market can be a fickle mistress. Yesterday I commented that NAB was weakening, with falling Relative Strength and Twiggs Money Flow. Today price gapped above resistance at 30.00. This emphasizes the importance of waiting for the trigger (a fall below 28.50), and not trying to anticipate signals.



Twiggs Money Flow (100) has reversed back up.




Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is now testing resistance at the previous high.
Gaps often exhaust short term momentum and we could well tomorrow see another retreat. It is unwise to base trading decisions on a single day's price movement. In this situation it would be prudent to wait for Relative Strength to follow price above resistance and for a pull-back to successfully test the new support level.
The quote below has particular relevance.






Perfect Your Market Timing
Learn how to manage your market risk.





The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



About the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


A tree so big that it takes both arms to surround,
starts out
as the tiniest shoot;
A nine-story terrace rises up from a basket of dirt.
A high place one hundred, one thousand feet high 
begins from under your feet.


~ Lao Tse: Te-Tao Ching.






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