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Trading Diary
January 27, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average pulled back to test the new 10600 support level, closing at 10609. Higher volume, after low volume on a single day up-thrust, signals an unwillingness to accept higher prices.
The intermediate trend is up. A fall below 10367 would be bearish.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 would signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite has also retraced most of the previous day's bar, closing down at 2116 on strong volume. 
The intermediate trend has lost momentum, forming a consolidation.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 formed an inside day, closing 11 points lower at 1144. The strong close and high volume are bearish signs. 
The intermediate trend is up.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1155 (Monday's high). Bearish below 1136 (Friday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1136.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 86.64%.


Amazon
The internet retailer reported strong fourth-quarter sales and earnings of 29 cents a share, compared to 19 cents a year earlier.
(more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes pulled back to close at 4.087%, testing support at the double bottom neckline.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.





Gold
New York (21.51): Spot gold rebounded to $408.70.
The intermediate trend is down and we are likely to see a test of support at 400.
The primary trend is up.




Australia
The All Ordinaries opening prices for the last two days have been corrected as below. Please take this into account when analyzing indexes.

The All Ordinaries has pulled back to test the new 3320 support level. Higher volume indicates selling pressure.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has made a marginal new high, signaling buyer caution. 
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 3160 would signal reversal.
Short-term: Bullish above 3350. Bearish below 3293.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3293. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.



Financials
The Financials-X-Property Trusts index [XXJ] has retreated back below resistance at 4127. A marginal break above resistance is often followed by a re-test of support levels at the opposite border of the consolidation pattern.
The breakout falsely signaled the start of a Stage 2 up-trend.




National Australia Bank [NAB]
NAB has experienced a reversal of fortunes since last covered on January 12, 2004
Price retreated back below support at 30.00, completing a marginal break. This may precede a re-test of support at 28.50
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned downwards, signaling further distribution.



Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is trending lower.
A close below 28.50 would signal a re-test of support at 24.50. Given the earlier false breaks, it would be prudent to wait for a pull-back (that respects the new resistance level).






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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



About the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


The professional concerns himself with doing the right thing rather than with making money,
knowing that the profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to.

~ Edwin Lefevre: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923).





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