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Trading Diary
January 16, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average re-tested resistance, closing at 10600. 
Consolidation in a narrow range below resistance at 10600 will be a bullish sign (during an up-trend). A fall below Tuesday's low of 10367 will signal a correction.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal strong accumulation. 
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite broke out above the brief consolidation at 2100 on large volume; a strong bullish sign.
The intermediate trend is up. Support is at 2100 and resistance at 2300. There may be a pull-back to re-test support at 2100.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal strong accumulation.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 broke through short-term resistance to close at 1139 on strong volume. The recent 3-day counter-trend on lower volume signals a healthy up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance at overhead at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the January 8 high of 1132.




The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115 (from January 13).
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator recovered to 85.23% (January 16). 
Almost 86% of stocks on the NYSE are in an up-trend, which is a 10-year high. The next highest level was 76% in August to October 1997, preceding a sharp correction to the 10-year low of 16%, in August 1998.




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Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes rallied to 4.014% after encountering support at 4.0%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. Price has been ranging between 4.0 and 4.5% and a close below the September low of 3.93% will signal reversal.



The yield differential (10-year T-notes compared to 13-week T-bills) is still healthy at 3.15%.




Gold
New York (13.00): Spot gold pulled back to $406.40 after reaching a high above 428.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Support is at 400.





 

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ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries retreated to 3298 testing support at 3293 on lower volume. The index is consolidating in a narrow range between 3293 and 3320; a bullish sign in an up-trend.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.



On the 3-year chart, the All Ords is consolidating between 3320 and 3160. A break above 3320 will signal a re-test of the previous highs at 3425 and 3440. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence. A fall below the recent support level would be a strong bear signal.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.



Sector Analysis
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is level).
  • Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 3** (RS is level) 
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is rising)

**  Financial-x-Property Trusts [XXJ] broke below the 3933 support level but has subsequently retreated; a weak reversal signal. Relative Strength (xjo) has leveled out and the primary trend is uncertain. The index re-tested resistance at 4127. A close above that level will signal that the primary trend has turned upwards.




Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) eased to 47 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Prominent sectors are:
  • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (5)
  • Banks (4)
  • Gas Utilities (3)


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The weekly Trading Diary offers fundamental analysis of the
economy and technical analysis of major market indices,
gold, crude oil and forex.
The monthly What's New newsletter covers new articles
on Trading and the Economy, as well as new software updates.



About the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.
Colin Twiggs


Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century:
Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others;
Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected;
Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it;
Refusing to set aside trivial preferences;
Neglecting development and refinement of the mind;
Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do.

~ Cicero
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