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January 9, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
of Use .
The Dow Industrial Average retreated 1.3% to close at 10458 on
lower volume, after testing resistance at 10600.
The fast intermediate up-trend is likely to either consolidate
below resistance at 10600 (from the March 2002 peak) or correct
back to the primary supporting trendline. Twiggs Money Flow (100)
continues to signal strong accumulation.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal
The Nasdaq Composite closed 14 points lower at 2086. Strong
volume and a weak close ( tall shadow) signal selling
The intermediate trend is up. Support is at 2000 and
resistance at 2100. A break above 2100 will be a strong bull
Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal strong
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal
The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower at 1121. Strong volume
signals selling pressure.
The intermediate up-trend is accelerating. A fourth, steeper
trendline is likely to signal a blow-off. Resistance at 1175 may,
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above Thursday's high of
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will signal
Intermediate: Bullish above 1070 (from December 1).
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator
is at a
10-year high of 85.88% (January 9). This means that almost 86% of
stocks on the NYSE are in an up-trend, which is a 10-year high.
The next highest level was 76% in August - October 1997, which
was followed by a sharp correction to the 10-year low of 16%, in
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The yield on 10-year treasury notes plummeted to 4.086%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. Price has been ranging between 4.0 and
4.5% and a fall below the September low of 3.93% will signal
(10-year T-notes compared to 13-week
T-bills) is still a healthy 3.25%.
New York (13.30): Spot gold rallied to $426.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Support is at 415 (the previous 10-year
The All Ordinaries retreated to 3307 after
testing resistance at 3320. The long shadow and higher volume
signal selling pressure. A fall below Monday's low of 3293 will
be bearish. January is historically a bullish month, however, as
institutional buyers return from their holidays, and we may see
further tests of the resistance level.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow
Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
On the 3-year chart we can see that the All Ords
has consolidated between 3160 and 3320, after a fast up-trend. A
break through resistance will signal a re-test of the previous
highs at 3425 to 3440. The primary trend is up but will reverse
if there is a fall below support at 3160 (the October 1
low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still
bearish after a large divergence.
A fall below the recent TMF support level would be a strong bear
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
The 11 sectors (10
+ Property) are in various
market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the
performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is
Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is
Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage
3 (RS is falling)
Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 2 (RS
Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is
Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is
Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 4**
(RS is level)
Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS
Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is
Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is
** Financial-x-Property Trusts [XXJ] broke
below the 3933 support level but has subsequently retreated back
above. This is a weak signal. Relative Strength (xjo), however,
is falling and the primary trend will be treated as
downwards until there is clear evidence to the contrary.
The index appears headed for a re-test of resistance at 4127 to
4136. A close above 4127 will signal that the primary trend has
Sectors: Relative Strength
screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) increased
to 62 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March
14, 2003). Prominent sectors are:
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Broadcasting & Cable TV (5)
Diversified Metals & Mining (3)
Diversified Commercial (3)
Data Processing (3)
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
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Humility leads to strength and not to weakness.
It is the highest form of self-respect
to admit mistakes and to make amends for them.
~ John (Jay) McCloy.
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