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January 7, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
of Use .
The Dow Industrial Average eased slightly,
closing at 10529. Buying support is still evident with a long
tail and higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal
The Nasdaq Composite rallied 20 points to close
at 2077 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at 2060 to
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal
The S&P 500 made a false break below
yesterday's low before rallying to close strongly at 1126.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1124 (Tuesday's
high). Bearish below 1118 (Tuesday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will
Intermediate: Bullish above 1124.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Credit card delinquencies are at a record high of 4.09%.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes slipped to 4.24%.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. Support is at 4.00% and
resistance at 4.50%.
The primary trend is up.
New York (23.37): Spot gold is almost unchanged at
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.
The All Ordinaries retreated to close at 3310 after yesterday's
marginal break above resistance [b]. The close half-way down
yesterday's strong up candle signals that the market is
uncomfortable with higher prices, confirmed by higher volume.
Short-term support is at 3310, the high of [a]. A fall below this
level will indicate a loss of momentum, but if price respects the
new support level, we may see a strong surge as institutional
buyers return from their holidays.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3)
Short-term: Bullish above today's high of 3325.
The All Ords is below its long-term trendline, signaling
weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a
fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has
leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence
.Intermediate term: Bullish above 3325. Bearish below
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Humility leads to strength and not to
It is the highest form of self-respect
to admit mistakes and to make amends for them.
~ John (Jay) McCloy.
Analysis of individual stocks will
resume on Monday, January 12th.
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